The ALP and unions had zeroed in on voter dissatisfaction with Mr Abbott, crafting their campaign advertising and Labor candidate Matt Keogh’s attacks squarely on the then-prime minister’s performance, alleged cuts to health and education and the Free Trade Agreement with China.
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“Just imagine now, if the problem all along was Tony Abbott”, he said.
It is paying out almost $20,000 to customers who backed a win by Mr Hastie.
Now Mr Turnbull and his supporters have swung the guillotine in advance and Mr Keogh – and the Labor Party – could be forgiven for thinking what might have been. This would have caused a lot of anxiety amongst Liberals holding marginal seats.
A week ago, the race was hard to call.
Both major party candidates are playing down the significance of the shift to Malcolm Turnbull, saying they’re focused on the people of Canning.
The by-election was prompted by the sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall, who held the seat with a comfortable 12 per cent margin.
Mr Hastie’s primary support was 48.4 per cent, up 3.1 points since the spill, compared with 32.9 per cent for Mr Keogh (down 3.5) and 7.6 per cent for Vanessa Rauland from the Greens.
Speaking on the Ten Network, Social Services Minister Scott Morrison dismissed talk of a leadership change as “incessant insider speculation” and said he knew nothing of it.
Labor’s internal confidence is eroding.
Turnbull was preferred leader for 51 percent of voters while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was the pick for 20 percent, with 29 percent being unsure.
Canning, traditionally a safe Liberal seat, was under siege from Labor before the leadership challenge, though the Coalition is still expected to win.
Hastie’s team was more buoyed.
Frontbenchers including Shorten and Foreign Minister Julie Bishop have joined in the campaign.
In an unusual twist, postal voters and those who voted early, who are traditionally among the more conservative, could offer some hope to Labor. Polling places close at 6pm sharp. Most of those – about 60% – voted before the Liberal leadership spill on Monday night.
If that proves cold comfort, a consolation prize for the losing candidate could come in the form of the proposed electorate of Burt, the formation of which has been recommended by the Australian Electoral Commission’s redistribution committee.
A redistribution before the 2016 federal election is set to take a swathe of voters out of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Tangney to create a new seat of Burt.
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Keogh has already been put forward as the likely victor of the as-yet-unformed seat, a suggestion he brushed aside when asked at a press conference on Friday, saying he was focused on the outcome of the Canning byelection first.
