First up, Pachter said, “The console installed base is as big as it’s ever going to get”. The PlayStation 4 is going to sell 120 million or 130 million – that’s great. With a hint from the Japanese company, rumors begin to circulate that besides being unveiled during the E3 2016 or early 2017, the Nintendo NX will be bringing in features similar or better than the PlayStation 4 or Xbox One. While the Wii U has struggled to grasp a firm share of the market, the PS4 and Xbox One have not, and in fact, they have been shattering sales precedents from a generation ago. It looked like a Wii U controller but compared to the said unit, this only has two face buttons, a display on the middle and a pair of “scroll shoulder toggles”.
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Perhaps the most recognizable analyst, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities spoke at DICE Europe last week (attended by Games Industry), where he made some lofty predictions about the current console generation.
As much as people don’t want to admit Pachter is right in this instance, he does make some compelling points as to how games are going to be released once we are finished with the PS4 and Xbox One’s generation. We’re going to be about the same. The last console gen, composed of the Wii, the PS3, and the Xbox 360, saw sales of around 270 million in total. Pachter argues that there’s a market of several million people who would never buy a console to play a game, but would definitely buy a game if it could run on their existing hardware. Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS.
The analyst also says that this will be “the last real console cycle”. Instead, “Each of them will make another console, some people will buy them, and the next console cycle will be to this console cycle what the 3DS is to the DS”. Sure, plenty of people would buy specific games if it didn’t require also picking up a console. There is a reason why fans play competitive games like Super Smash with a Gamecube controller to this day: Nintendo’s loyal audience comprises hardcore gamers who are comfortable with a controller with a more old school feel. “It’s an opportunity for everyone in the value chain, except the retailer and maybe the console manufacturer”.
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It was claimed that the Nintendo NX is not just a solo console but a platform that has a dual goal, a handheld and a home console device. Do you you agree with his assessment?
