Two pre-poll surveys on Bihar Assembly elections on Thursday gave contrasting predictions with one giving a comfortable win for the Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance while the other giving the impression of a photo finish with a slight edge for BJP-led NDA though it falls short of majority by a whisker.
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Besides the BJP leaders, its sister organisations like the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, Vishva Hindu Parishad, Bajrang Dal and Durga Vahini are actively campaigning in the polls to mobilise votes for the BJP, if not its allies. The Grand Alliance appeared to be plated to gather 46 % ballot talk about, a media assertion said. RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, who can not contest polls following his conviction in a fodder scam case, was the third choice for chief minister followed by the NDA’s new Dalit find, former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, and the LJP’s Ram Vilas Paswan.
The JD-U led by incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is expected to win 69 seats with an error margin of 5 seats.
The survey, conducted between September 3 and October 4, involved over 24,000 respondents.
When asked about the basis on which people cast their votes, most people said that they were influenced by the performance of the state government.
At the same time, the Grand Alliance was likely to get more votes from the youth (18-35 age group) than the NDA alliance.
The buzz about Nitish campaign may not be as strong but he in his own way is turning the election a referendum on his work, steering clear of his ally Lalu Prasad’s caste pitch and perceived negativity about the RJD’s 15 year rule in the state.
Development would be the main election issue.
But while Nitish may have been attacked for joining hands with Lalu for the polls, the CNN-IBN Axis survey reveals that 42 percent respondents actually thought it would benefit Nitish, while 39 percent said it wouldn’t.
Of the 243 Assembly constituencies in the state, 81 were covered in the survey. Other issues are inflation and “bijli-paani-sadak”, ranking second with 13 percent each.
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Prime Minister Narendra Modi will today address three election rallies for the upcoming Bihar Assembly polls. While the NDA alliance’s thrust has been on consolidating upper-caste and Mahadalit votes, the Grand Alliance hopes to win a sizeable chunk of the Yadav-Muslim-Kurmi-Koeri communities.
