Point out that in a projection model, based on vaccination rates declining to 98% of current rates over the course of multiple birth cohorts, an additional 1.2 million children 17 and younger would become susceptible.
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The investigators estimated that 12.5% of US children were at risk for measles, and for children ages 3 and under, that rate of susceptibility could be as high as 24.7%.
“We are at a decent point, but we could do better”, he said. There are several reasons why an individual might not be vaccinated, including medical contraindications, lack of maternal antibodies, not reaching the recommended vaccination age, or religious or personal exemptions. The findings should be considered preliminary because they have not appeared in a peer-reviewed journal.
A small child has been hospitalized for measles in northern Virginia, according to local health officials. Few parents today are familiar with measles, whose early symptoms include fever, runny nose, cough and red, watery eyes. While measles isn’t life-threatening for many children, it has the potential to cause brain damage, blindness, and death in others.
Measles is one of the most contagious of the vaccine-preventable diseases, meaning it’s necessary to maintain the highest levels of immunity to prevent transmission. Those who are unvaccinated and under-vaccinated may acquire the disease through direct contact or droplets in the air. While the child was age-appropriately vaccinated with one dose of the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, it takes two doses of the vaccine to provide full protection against measles.
Bednarczyk, an assistant professor in Emory’s Rollins School of Public Health, presented that study at IDWeek, a large annual infectious diseases conference being held this year in San Diego.
“Most people believe that they’ve already had their childhood immunizations – they’re just like, ‘Oh yeah, I would have had that, ‘ and no further consideration”, said Rayann Aziz, Executive Director of Passport Health, the largest provider of travel medicine and immunization services in North America.
Kimberlin sees these estimates as worrisome.
“We think measles is definitely something people should be concerned about, specifically getting vaccinated against”, said lead author Mark J. Sotir of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia.
“Although we eliminated continuous measles transmission in the United States about 15 years ago, thanks to the effectiveness of the MMR vaccine and robust vaccination rates, these study results show that we can’t get complacent”, said Dr. Bednarczyk.
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Travelers from other countries can carry measles to the US and Dr. Emily Hyle of Massachusetts General Hospital and colleagues ran an experiment to see if travelers are aware of and prepared for the risk of infection. But past year, there were a record 668 cases of measles reported, and 2015 started off with a multi-state outbreak that originated in Disneyland and sickened at least 117 people. Below this threshold, measles outbreaks are possible and could lead to widespread illness. The child also may have exposed people at Inova Fairfax Medical Campus in Falls Church, Va., when the child went to the emergency room.
