The positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the Indian Ocean’s equivalent of the Pacific Ocean-based El Nino, is at its strongest since 2006, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in a weekly update.
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The BOM’s 2015-16 tropical cyclone season outlook says there’s only a 27 per cent chance of exceeding the average in the eastern region.
Five cyclones typically occur during the season, but the bureau expects that number to fall.
“Fewer cyclones translates into more mining and shipping days”, a commodities trader said.
The Southwest Pacific, including New Zealand, is at risk of more tropical cyclones than usual as the el nino weather pattern continues to strengthen.
Expected tropical cyclone numbers between November and April.
Even tropical cyclones well offshore can have significant impacts on coastal areas.
Mr Brandolino said New Zealand normally got at least one ex-tropical cyclone a year passing but there could be more this season.
The Northwestern sub-region is most likely to experience fewer tropical cyclones than average this season, with a 15pc chance of more tropical cyclones than average and an 85pc chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average.
The Northwestern sub-region is most likely to experience fewer tropical cyclones than average this season, with a 15% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and an 85% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average.
However, it also said the outlook accuracy in this region was low. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact the coast.
The Northern region is most likely to experience fewer tropical cyclones than average this season, with a 36% chance of more tropical cyclones than average; 64% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. The remnant low produced record, devastating floods two weeks later over northern Queensland.
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The Eastern region is most likely to experience fewer tropical cyclones than average this season, with only a 27pc chance of more than average – 73pc chance of fewer than average. “On average about four make landfall”, said Ms Imielska.
