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Oil market to be oversupplied into 2016, global energy agency says

Earlier, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has said that Russia was ready to meet with OPEC and non-OPEC producers to discuss the market and his comments have supported prices.

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Raising the prospect of slower oil demand, Chinese economic growth for the third quarter is expected to fall below 7 percent for the first time since the global financial crisis.

“Nonetheless, markets are still relatively volatile compared to historical averages and there is evidence to suggest that there is still significant uncertainty as to where oil prices are heading in the short-term”.

THE worldwide Energy Agency has downgraded its 2016 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.2m barrels per day from 1.4m bpd, reflecting a more pessimistic macroeconomic global outlook. Iran pumped 2.8 million barrels a day last month, down more than 20 per cent from four years ago.

Oil prices were subdued in volatile Asian trade Wednesday as the market digested a report from the the worldwide Energy Agency (IEA) showing that global crude oversupply will persist until next year.

Brent crude was down 5 cents at $49.19 a barrel as of 0824 GMT.

The agency’s monthly oil market report, published on Tuesday, said that global demand growth is expected to slow from a five-year high of 1.8 million bpd in 2015 to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2016. He added that the world crude output is at 75 million barrels a day and other liquids add nearly 18 million barrels a day to supply the world.

The onset of seasonal turnarounds in the OECD and the Former Soviet Union is estimated to have curbed global refinery runs by 1.9 million bpd in September to 79.4 million bpd.

But OPEC output is projected to grow, the IEA said, falling in line with OPEC’s own assessment of growing supply.

“Even if the November (official selling prices) are attractive, we do not have room to take more”, one of the potential buyers said, declining to be named due to company policy.

Record output from Iraq pushed supplies from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries higher in September, according to the report.

It disclosed that in September, OPEC crude production increased by 109 tb/d to average 31.57 mb/d, according to secondary sources.

“Oil production is under pressure not only in the USA, however”.

Declining USA oil production will drive the decline in total supplies from nations outside OPEC, the IEA said.

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The slump in oil prices has stimulated demand, and the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere would also help boost consumption, Kuwait’s OPEC governor Nawal al-Fuzaie said. Iran is preparing the ground for a full return to the oil markets in early 2016 when sanctions are expected to be lifted.

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