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Mainland trade data offer mixed picture
The trade surplus for the month almost doubled to 376.2 billion yuan, Customs said. Exports were down -3.7% from the same period previous year following the -5.5% drop in August while imports were down -20.4% in September following the -13.8% drop in August.
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Latest data reveals that Chinese imports slowed down by -17.7% in September from a year ago, while exports declined by -1.1% for the same period. Exports to every major market except Taiwan rose from August, as did imports.
Wang said he expects the figure to be 6.6 percent, but even that is below the government’s full-year target of about 7 percent.
“Import growth remained sluggish, suggesting weakening domestic demand, particularly investment demand”, said Mr Yang Zhao, China economist at Nomura Holdings in Hong Kong.
However, Customs department spokesman Huang Songping told reporters: “Imports of a few of the bulk commodity exhibited an increase in volume and a fall in price”. Next year, the world economy will expand 3.6%, less than the 3.8% projected in July.
Much of China’s slowdown over the past five years was self-imposed as the ruling Communist Party tries to steer the economy to more self-sustaining growth based on domestic consumption instead of exports and investment.
China’s exports fell less than expected in September, with monthly figures showing recovery, but a sharper fall in imports left economists divided over whether the country’s ailing trade sector is showing signs of turning around.
Recent poor economic numbers have raised expectations at home and overseas that Beijing will take stronger stimulus measures, with Shanghai reflecting that sentiment Tuesday and closing up 0.17 percent.
While falling commodity prices partially account for the lower value of imports, which are heavily skewed towards commodities like oil and iron ore, weak demand for property and cars across China is also a factor.
Imports of a few bulk commodities exhibited growth in volumes, but saw steep falls in prices, said the administration.
“What is most worrying is the continued slump in imports”, said Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications. With a rising trade surplus, the China-focused iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) rose by 1.6% over the past year as of October 12.
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China will release September inflation figures on Wednesday and third-quarter growth statistics on Monday.