The House of Commons (corresponding to our House of Representatives) will have 338 members, all elected in single-member districts by first-past-the-post voting.
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Lagging in the polls ahead of Monday’s vote, Harper has spent the last week of the campaign highlighting what he says are the risks of returning the Liberals to power: higher taxes, deficits and increased government spending. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is trailing Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, the son of late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, in the polls.
As it happens, it also would have been the birthday for Trudeau’s father.
Liberal Glen Allan, New Democrat Erin Weir, Green Party’s Brent Smith and independent John Clayton Turner have all run solid campaigns, but even they likely realized from the start that an upset of enormous proportion – not to mention the stars aligning perfectly – would be needed to unseat Hillyer.
“They may try to fool you by giving the old vehicle a fresh coat of paint. If the NDP is not the leading party in seats or votes tonight, which it seems it probably won’t be – we can’t be sure – but if it isn’t, I don’t think it’s because they did anything wrong, necessarily; I think events kind of got away from them”.
But both the sluggish Canadian economy, which is heavily dependent on commodity exports, and Harper’s long tenure in office have helped Trudeau take an nearly nine-point lead, per one of the latest polls.
Along the bruising way was a record influx of people fleeing war in Syria, a court ruling quashing a veil ban and a recession – crises that gave Canadians a chance to assess parties’ reactions in near-real time.
There have also been scandals thrown into the mix. Harper, however, has faced tough criticism for a sometimes vicious campaign which was criticized for playing off fears of Muslims.
“We’re not – there’s a diversity of people here”, said Genaille, who acknowledged the Liberals have long struggled to win seats in the province.
The Conservative leader is vying to win his fourth-consecutive mandate, and hopes to become the only prime minister to do since Sir Wilfrid Laurier in 1908.
But Harper is now up against a strong desire for a change in government and his personal image is at an all-time low – highlighted by Tory television spots that open with “Stephen Harper may not be ideal…”
If he loses Monday, Harper will be the first prime minister in 36 years to go from a majority of his making to conceding defeat on election night. So it was a bit awkward when, while stumping for Liberal candidates in Edmonton, Justin Trudeau mixed up one of his talking points.
The party could hold the balance of power if the Liberals or Conservatives fail to achieve a majority – a scenario Mulcair has avoided discussing.
The Conservatives are trying to hold off the leftist New Democratic Party under Thomas Mulcair for second place, although no party is projected to get more than 40 percent of the final vote.
Still, the NDP believes that has stabilized and one Quebec NDP strategist said that in a few ridings where their main opponents are the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois, and where the Liberals are not a factor, the anti-niqab vote may end up splitting in their favour.
“Here in Canada, it was really specific issues” in the election debate, said Jonathan Kay, editor-in-chief of the policy journal Walrus magazine.
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Under Canada’s system of voluntary voting, the Conservative machine also has a reputation for being better at turning out its support base.
