This negative outcome is far from guaranteed, however, and Putin holds more cards than his critics realize.
Advertisement
“They will get trapped, they will get involved in this ongoing conflict and the consequences will be absolutely unpredictable”, Kosachev said, addicting that sending United States troops into Syria would be a “big mistake”.
Here’s how Putin might achieve his ideal outcome in Syria.
But this is the limit of what can be achieved by Moscow’s military involvement in Syria. Not only did it cement his status as Russia’s man in the region, it also put to rest speculation it was about to cut him loose.
The United States’ strategy, by contrast, remains much more convoluted. As the conflict has gone on, the world has slowly abandoned the Syrian people, until only Riyadh and Ankara are now left to swim against the current of global malaise on Syria, even after the U-turns on the Assad issue, which was, once upon a time, a red-line for the worldwide community.
Putin’s desire to reassert Russia’s influence in the Middle East appears to be bearing fruit already. On Tuesday, Russian Federation confirmed its first military fatality in Syria, but the military’s account says the soldier, 19-year-old Vadim Kostenko, committed suicide. Moscow, reports indicate, has begun sending military reinforcements to Tajikistan military base, where the Russian army’s 201st Motorised Rifle Division is stationed. Upon examination, Russian and American responses to war-torn Syria are an effective lens through which we can see how America’s unwillingness to treat Russia maturely is damaging U.S. interests.
Consider the following scenario.
And it is open to question whether Assad’s forces could hold on to any large-scale gains: they are simply stretched too thin.
The Syrian presidency statement said the state would welcome any political solution approved by the Syrian people that preserves national unity.
The West might well consider such an outcome acceptable.
Using the Arab acronym for IS, he joked, “Maybe we should try to negotiate a truce with Daesh, fight Assad and then come back to finish Daesh”.
But after more than three weeks of Russian air strikes, which critics say targeted mainly the Syrian opposition and not Daesh, it became apparent that the demoralised Syrian army was unable to achieve breakthroughs in Homs, Aleppo, the Damascus countryside and Sahl Al Ghab. In other words, to help the Syrian government make future advances, the patches of rebel land inside government territory are natural first targets.
Whatever the inconsistencies in Moscow’s own policies, it has highlighted the deficiencies in Washington’s approach – not least the collapse of its ailing “train and equip” programme for Syria, which was largely going nowhere. Although the United States is unlikely to accept a Syria-for-Ukraine trade-off, the Europeans very well might. They surprised me, just like many countries. Were Putin confronted by a restive populace, he would hardly want the United States and Europe to compel his departure.
Two things should be clear from the outset.
Advertisement
A Russian lawmaker who met Assad on Sunday as part of a delegation told Reuters the Syrian leader’s priority was to defeat terrorists before holding elections.
