The researchers said more than 60 people can face premature death and the number can increase if the company does not strictly follow the recall.
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The report also predicts there will be an extra 31 cases of chronic bronchitis and 34 hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiac conditions as a result.
The software would sense when the auto would undergo an emission test and enable its full emissions-control system for the duration of the examination, which would be non-functional while driving.
“It seemed to be an important issue in which we could bring to bear impartial information to help quantify the human implications of the Volkswagen emissions issue”, Barrett says. If the cars are all recalled by the end of next year, another 130 deaths may be avoided, according to the study published Thursday in the journalEnvironmental Research Letters.
Earlier this week, VW reported its first quarterly loss for at least 15 years after covering the costs of its emissions scandal.
MIT also projects that Volkswagen’s emissions scandal will lead up to $450 million in health expenses, but if the recall is finished by the end of next year it could save the troubled automaker up to $840 million in further expenses.
Read the MIT News story here. “The main motivation is to inform the public and inform the developing regulatory situation”.
Should the affected vehicles not be recalled in the USA, say the authors, then the effect of the excess emissions, from when they started and in the future, will lead to the premature deaths of 140 people.
Also Wednesday VW’s new chief executive, Herbert Diess, apologised at the Tokyo Auto Show for the cheating scandal, promising to win back customer trust.
They then examined three scenarios: the current one where over 480,000 diesel vehicles have already emitted excess levels; a scenario where every affected vehicle is recalled by the end of 2016; and a scenario where no vehicles are recalled and remain on the road emitting excess levels of pollutants over the remainder of their lifetimes.
The group then estimated the health effects based on previous data showing the damage caused by fine particulates and ozone for populations.
“We all have risk factors in our lives, and [excess emissions] is another small risk factor”.
For the half million carsaffected in the US, about 60 people will die prematurely, on average more than 10 years before they otherwise would have, according to the study.
Barrett says that, per kilometer driven, this number is about 20 percent of the number of deaths caused by road transport accidents. If nothing’s done, these excess emissions will cause around another 140 deaths.
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Citation: “Impact of the Volkswagen emissions control defeat device on United States public health”, Steven R H Barrett, Raymond L Speth, Sebastian D Eastham, Irene C Dedoussi, Akshay Ashok, Robert Malina and David W Keith.
