Nearly 200 governments agreed in 2010 to limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial times, meaning Paris will have to agree ways to increase action in coming years.
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It was assumed by European Commission’s Joint Research Centre that if these countries would keep on their efforts after 2030, it could limit the long term temperature increase to around three degree Celsius.
A report released today by the UNFCCC secretariat, assessing the collective impact of over 140 national climate action plans, indicates that together they can dramatically slow global emissions into the atmosphere.
Chris Dodwell, Ricardo Energy & Environment’s worldwide Director, says: “We are proud to have supported countries across the world – ranging from developed nations to least developing countries and small islands – in their efforts to develop fair and ambitious contributions to the global response to climate change”.
“Governments from all corners of the Earth have signalled through their INDCs that they are determined to play their part according to their national circumstances and capabilities”, Figueres said. While the aggregate falls short of the targeted 2-degree cap on temperatures, the United Nations said it provides a foundation to build from. “I am confident that these INDCs are not the final word in what countries are ready to do and achieve over time-the journey to a climate safe-future is underway and the Paris agreement to be inked in Paris can confirm, and catalyze that transition”, she added.
“Despite the unprecedented level of effort, this report finds that current commitments are not yet sufficient to meet what the world needs”, Morgan said in a statement.
In a bid to develop a clear and achievable trajectory to stay below the 2C, a conference is planned in Paris near the end of this year at which a global deal will be hammered out.
“Many countries have been healthily conservative about what they have put forward”, she said, adding that many countries and particularly China, are likely to achieve greater emission reductions than the targets they have put forward. “CSE disagrees with the projections put out by agencies, including UNFCCC, that the temperature rise will be about 2.7 degrees by 2100”.
Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, remained optimistic despite the initial pledges falling short of the 2 degrees goal, saying the plans “represent a clear and determined down-payment on a new era of climate ambition”. Rehman worries that the climate impacts of 0.85 degrees warming “are already affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, and are set to get even worse”.
It calculates that the INDCs “could move the world up to halfway between business as usual and a pathway that would offer a reasonable chance of avoiding global warming of more than 2 degrees Celsius”.
The Least Developed Countries (LDC), a coalition of frontline nations taking part in the climate talks, were even more critical of the findings, which come just days after preliminary negotiations in Bonn ended without a concrete plan for rich countries to step up their part.
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National strategies would restrict a rise in world emissions to the equivalent of 56.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2030, four billion less than expected without the extra action, from 49.0 billion in 2010, it said.
