(4)- Because in Syria, a few countries of NAME, Ukraine etc the trouble started with demonstrations / protest against Government, Russian Federation should insist that Syria should keep laws in order to:- (i)- Provide adequate space & facilities for non-violent demonstration / protest by opposition / people at various places in the country. This bears directly on Putin’s current public relations offensive for broad collaboration regarding Syria. Today the Russian bombing campaign seeks only to stabilize the Syrian regime’s lines around the key corridor running north from Damascus through Homs and Hama. So in the end, the jihadis may conquer Syria anyway.
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That would be “directly at odds with those of us who believe that Assad has so much blood on this hands that he has to depart before there can be a sustainable political solution in Syria”, Hammond said. Is it destroying Islamic State or is it another goal?
The U.S.is invading Syria (first with bombers, and now even with its first troops) to overthrow Syria’s elected President, whom even Western-allied polling shows still to be supported by a majority of Syrians. Not surprisingly, Assad continues to cling to power while Islamic State controls large chunks of both Syria and Iraq.
Putin’s desire to reassert Russia’s influence in the Middle East appears to be bearing fruit already. The 17 countries represented around the table included allies of Bashar al-Assad – and supporters of the rebels fighting to bring him down.
“We hope the Russian role in the Syrian crisis will be effective and Russia will be on the side of justice, dealing with all parties in the Syrian crisis”, he added. By all indications Assad is painfully aware of this dynamic – and Putin surely is, too.
Hammond said he spoke with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, the day before in Vienna after the talks concluded and Lavrov told him Russian Federation did not have any flexibility on the issue of Assad’s departure. “We would do this, of course, in close contact with the other global powers and with the countries in the region that want to see a peaceful settlement to this conflict”.
Indeed, the situation of the Syrian army has improved, and Russia’s involvement has been a boost for its morale, but there is no evidence that the Syrian army has managed to retake lost ground.
Consider the following scenario.
“For us without al-Assad’s departure, there is no solution for the Syrian problems”, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told Reuters. Back then too there were major differences between the allied powers.
The West might well consider such an outcome acceptable.
The direct involvement of Russian Federation in the conflict since 30 September 2015 has created a sagacity of proxy war between the U.S and the Russian Federation and as a effect, there are likely chances that this proxy war may shortly transform into a pro-world war involving many other countries in Syria. Make no mistake – the presence of Russian warplanes in proximity to those of the US increases the possibility of inadvertent combat, which could escalate rapidly.
Naturally, Putin would demand the West pay a price for this cooperation. First of all, he would surely require that Russian Federation be afforded a seat at the table for any discussions involving a broader geopolitical and security architecture for the Middle East. Indeed, even without Western support, Russian Federation has made progress towards this goal. Just last month, dozens of US-trained rebels reportedly disappeared upon their release into the Syrian wild, possibly teaming up with Islamic State maniacs – with a lot of USA weapons and military know-how in tow. In short, vital USA interests in the region were recognized clearly and protected.
To be clear, this represents a hypothetical scenario and any number of things could still go wrong for Russian Federation. When America’s ally the Qatari regime, which funds al-Nusra (al-Qaeda in Syria), hired a polling firm in 2012 to survey Syrians, the finding was that 55% of Syrians wanted Assad to remain as President. America’s allies are reluctant to invest in a process in which they do not think the U.S. has much confidence and that has little chance of success.
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Josh Cohen is a former USAID project officer involved in managing economic reform projects in the former Soviet Union.
