Neither Iran nor Russian Federation wanted to see extremist jihadi forces take over all of Syria, and both countries understood that the so-called “moderate” rebels barely exist. This negative outcome is far from guaranteed, however, and Putin holds more cards than his critics realise.
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Iran has deployed what it says are military advisers to support the government and has had casualties in the conflict, though it denies the presence of Iranian combat troops in Syria.
Here’s how Putin might achieve his ideal outcome in Syria.
To start, a key strength of Russia’s Syrian military strategy is its simplicity. This approach provides breathing space for Assad, and allows his regime to implement its long-mooted Plan B – a rump state centred on the Alawite heartland along the Mediterranean coast.
The United States’ strategy, by contrast, remains much more convoluted.
Moreover, Russian Federation aims to reassert itself as a major world power. He said Russian Federation will be dragged into a quagmire, and he expressed confidence that Russian Federation would come around to the realization that in order to solve Syria, it will have to agree to Assad’s departure.
Russian Federation can not afford to sustain its military onslaught against everyone opposed to Asad’s brutal rule. By all indications Assad is painfully aware of this dynamic – and Putin surely is, too. Islamic State (IS), with the support of Jaesh al Jihad, the Yarmouk Martyrs’ Brigade and many other small militant groups have significantly dominated the momentum and become the strongest challenge to President Assad’s regime. A leading German foreign policy expert, Volker Perthes, is chairing one of de Mistura’s working groups.
A bonus here is that Japanese and Indian interest in the Syrian peace process could spur China to play an active role in reaching, rather than blocking, a solution.
Consider the following scenario.
Earlier in the day, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow considered the use of USA forces without coordination with Assad’s government unacceptable. The problem with Iran is not its nuclear program; it is Iran’s revolutionary ideology that informs its 35-year war against the United States and Israel.
The USA and its allies insist Assad must leave office as part of any accord, though they have in recent weeks signalled that they could countenance him staying during a short-term transitional administration.
The conflict has chased refugees into Europe and spread the threat of Islamic State terrorism around the world.
Naturally, Putin would demand the West pay a price for this cooperation. First, it will increase Russia’s leverage over Asad. And although some estimates place the personnel deployment at around 2,000 and a few dozen jets, that presence, along with long-range cruise missiles, means Putin has been able to project great power strength even while minimizing the chance of losses. And now Iran’s most notorious Revolutionary Guard commander takes control of a pan-Shiite army trying to decimate our remaining allies in the Syrian civil war. “This flouts the very raison d’etre of the United Nations”.
To be clear, this represents a hypothetical scenario and any number of things could still go wrong for Russian Federation. No other outside player – the USA, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, you name it – is willing to commit ground troops to the battle against Islamic State either.
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For the negotiations to succeed, many political analysts say the Syrian government and rebel groups will need to be included in future talks.
