Ninety parties are competing in next week’s poll, but the NLD is the only one with a following like this, reflecting its origins in the mass uprising of 1988. “It has been forced to accept that the history of military rule is not a bonus for most voters”. The NLD won the first of those, but the military annulled the results and refused to hand over power.
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This time around, the military has had a long time to plan. It did so knowing that the opposition would likely win any credible election, and it therefore made sure that its red lines were enshrined in the 2008 constitution. The document came from under the military regime of 1988-2006 without the full participation of other political parties, such as the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD). It appoints the ministers of defense, home affairs and border affairs, giving it control of the key security portfolios.
“To be honest, they are voting for the National League for Democracy (NLD) because it is Suu Kyi’s party”. The NLD previously campaigned on a platform of extensive reforms, including improved transparency and accountability in the oil and gas sector, which accounted for $3.2 billion out of the 2014-15 total of $8 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI).
“This is a watershed moment in the democratic transition of Myanmar and I urge everyone involved to ensure that respect for human rights is front and centre in the run up to the elections, during the elections and following the elections”, UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, Yanghee Lee, said in a statement. “If I don’t see this, I hope my children and grandchildren will”, says Mahn Khin Tun in his village at the foot of the sacred Zwegabin mountain in Karen state. While there are bound to be many irregularities, large-scale fraud appears unlikely.
There are nevertheless a number of serious concerns. The voter roll still contains many flaws. “Our duty is to serve, your duty is to vote”.
Increasing anti-Muslim sentiment in the country has been stirred up by ultra-nationalist Buddhist monks, whose interventions in the election drew criticism in September from nine countries with embassies in Burma, including the United States and United Kingdom.
The NLD has also been criticised for failing to field a single Muslim candidate for the poll in an apparent attempt to appease extremist Buddhists. Exercising effective political power and the levers of government after the election will depend not only on achieving a decisive electoral victory.
“The NLD will contest the election but the prospect of (Suu Kyi) becoming the president is nearly zero”, Aung Zaw, editor of influential Burmese news magazine the Irrawaddy told CNN.
“There’s no doubt that she is seen as being somebody who has extraordinary personality and integrity”, he told the ABC.
A lack of leadership has already caused difficulty for the NLD in choosing candidates for the presidency. She has basically two options: select a reformist member of the old elite, or another member of her own party. Her close and cooperative relations with parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann, a former top general, had suggested that he could be a possible candidate. But his removal as head of the USDP following a rift with both the president and the commander-in-chief make him a less attractive option.
Sunday’s rally is expected to be the last major NLD gathering as electioneering enters its final week, with campaigning ceasing at dawn on Friday.
“But I think its just because they don’t want to give it to us”, Suu Kyi continued, to thunderous applause. This is a high-stakes gambit. Ms Suu Kyi challenged that complacent view.
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After decades of sanctions and isolation, the Obama administration embarked on a dramatic shift in policy with the new Myanmar government, re-establishing diplomatic ties with the appointment of an ambassador in Yangon in 2012, as part of an initiative described as a “partnership to advance democratic reform”.
