Rising sea levels from unchecked carbon emissions could drive more than 100 million people into extreme poverty and submerge the homes of over half a billion, two new reports say.
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It projected crop losses of five percent by 2030 and 30 percent by 2080 globally, and warned that 150 million people could be at risk from malaria, diarrhea and stunted growth.
In his June encyclical, Pope Francis argued: “Many of the poor live in areas particularly affected by phenomena related to warming, and their means of subsistence are largely dependent on natural reserves and ecosystemic services such as agriculture, fishing and forestry”. It notes that if poverty reduction and development work continue, it could help save many of those at the most risk.
Those efforts would need to be coupled with “targeted climate adaptation measures”, such as infrastructure like dikes and drainage systems, mangrove restoration to deal with flooding, and the introduction of climate-resistant crops and livestock breeds. The eventual course of sea level rise will greatly depend on decisions made now, including at the upcoming Paris Climate Summit in early December, when world leaders will attempt to adopt a new climate treaty to go into effect in the year 2020.
But more ambitious plans to reduce climate-changing emissions – aimed at keeping the global temperature rise within an internationally agreed limit of 2 degrees Celsius – must also cushion poor people from any negative repercussions, it added.
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are the regions most susceptible to the effects of climate change.
Stephane Hallegatte, one of the authors, told The Associated Press that one of the unique features of the report was that instead of analyzing the macro-economic impact of climate change it was based in part on surveys of 1.4 million people in 92 countries. “We have a window of opportunity to achieve our poverty objectives in the face of climate change, provided we make wise policy choices now”.
If governments fail to provide proper planning, the report warns that decades of progress in supporting vulnerable people living in poverty could be undone by efforts to fight climate change.
Without the right kind of policies to combat climate change, this outcome can not be avoided, they stressed.
The report also calls for “an all-out push” to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but in a way that “does not burden the poor”.
A few of the changes may even benefit the poor rather than hinder them.
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Climate change could increase poverty levels by up to 100 million people, the World Bank says – and a second study says several cities could be swamped.
