Ahead of this weekend’s meeting, Russian Federation has released a new peace proposal that involves Syria drafting a new constitution within 18 months followed by early presidential elections.
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Russia’s military intervention in Syria has raised Moscow’s profile when it comes to Syria and given Russian President Vladimir Putin a stronger say in how to end the conflict.
“We must first of all, in Syria, eradicate terrorism”.
The plan was contained in a document that called for forming a constitutional commission from “domestic and outside opposition” groups.
Apart from the airstrikes, Russian Federation provides Assad forces with surface-to-surface rocket systems, combat vehicles, equipment, advisors, artillery support, and spotters.
Such is the level of concern over this that the US Defence Secretary, Ashton Carter, has stopped his officials from using the term “deconfliction” in describing talks being held by American and Russian military to prevent accidental clashes in Syria, in case that smacked of collusion.
Russia, which with Iran has been Assad’s top ally during Syria’s almost five-year conflict, has denied any document is being prepared before a second round of worldwide peace talks in Vienna this week.
Meanwhile, senior Russian and American defense officials are once again speaking to each other in order to avoid an unforeseen clash between their respective air forces in the skies above Syria.
Russian air strikes and the Syrian government’s army proved an effective tag team in defeating ISIS on Tuesday, as Bashar al-Assad’s forces finally ended an ISIS siege on the Kweires air base in the northern region of Aleppo province.
But that is easier said than done.
Syrian MP Sharif Shehadeh, of the ruling Ba’ath Party, said the idea of holding a presidential vote before 2021 was not acceptable.
They added that an worldwide preparatory commission is to begin work from Thursday on pulling together the opposition lists, as well as on deciding which rebel groups in Syria are to be classified as “terrorist” organisations. In addition to the humanitarian disaster the conflict has caused, the administration thinks the continuation of the war undercuts its higher priority of defeating the Islamic State in both Syria and Iraq. The United States, Russian Federation and countries across the globe will take part in those talks, though neither Assad’s government nor Syrian rebels will participate. The area is home to a stronghold of Assad’s Alawite sect.
At least 22 people were killed and many more wounded by rebel shellfire in the Mediterranean city of Latakia on Tuesday, state media and activists say.
It calls for U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura to launch a political process between the Syrian government and “a united delegation of the opposition groups” on the basis of the June 2012 communique agreed upon by major powers in Geneva calling for the establishment of a transitional governing body for Syria with full executive powers, leading to elections.
Iran, too, remains a wild card. The effective position of the Western powers and their Gulf allies is that Assad must go before any transition can be discussed, rather than keeping all options on the table. In September, U.S. CENTCOM Commander Lloyd Austin said much the same thing.
But the document does not specify that Assad would not be allowed to stand in those elections.
Even though the latest talks represent the most serious opportunity yet, their success is a long shot, Gerges said.
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“Not only because the devil is in the details, but because we are talking about regional powers that don’t see eye-to-eye and you are talking about multiple factions that are going to fight until the end”, he said.
