Four teams from the Southeastern Conference made the rankings: Alabama (2), LSU (9), Florida (11) and Mississippi State (17).
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If you live in Iowa City, Stillwater, Oklahoma or Waco, Texas, there’s no doubt you think your team belongs in the four-team College Football Playoff.
– Big Blue: MI beats Ohio State on November 28 and then Ohio State beats Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. The top three teams, in order, are Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State.
Perhaps the biggest surprise was Iowa (9-0) moving up four spots from last week to come in at No. 5 in the latest rankings. If the Tigers win out, and don’t get help, they’d probably wind up in the Sugar Bowl. Following a decisive 42-10 victory over the Colorado Buffaloes, David Shaw’s club climbed to No. 7 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings (previously ranked No. 11).
Similar to Clemson, the Sooners could have three big wins – Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State – and one loss to a team that maybe doesn’t break.
Overall, the feeling toward the Big 12 was that of disrespect again, and these rankings did little to quiet the chatter of the league getting left out of the Playoff for a second straight season. Either way, it’s the Big 12 that has the most on the line in the weeks ahead. Notre Dame has to win out to make the football version of the Final Four.
MI State (8-1) fell from No. 7 to No. 13 after losing 39-38 to Nebraska.
The Irish can beat Wake Forest and Boston College, two sub-.500 ACC programs that won’t count for much in the selection committee’s eyes, to set up a season-ending showdown against a Stanford side that checked in at No. 7 in Tuesday night’s rankings. You see Ohio State remaining at No. 3 and Alabama, after destroying LSU, jumping the Buckeyes up to No. 2. The Horned Frogs are followed by Florida State, Mississippi State, Northwestern and UCLA, which moved up four spots from last week.
In fact, the FPI gives Notre Dame a 37% chance to win their remaining regular season games while Baylor has just a 16% chance.
Baylor: Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at home, at TCU. Which, by my math, means they need to win the rest of their games. I don’t think the committee would snub the Big 12 two years in a row, so I think Notre Dame wouldn’t make the playoff in that situation.
Iowa and its 9-0 record and two wins against Top 25 teams received a few mad respect from the committee, jumping from No. 9 to No. 5.
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The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player statistics, to play every game 50,000 times before it’s played. Remember Notre Dame has been playing without eight key players all lost to season-ending injuries, including their starting quarterback and running back. They could win their last game against Stanford by a touchdown, but if Baylor wins by 60 points, they might skip the Irish and take that last spot.
