Djokovic, who looked so comfortable in defeating Nishikori on Sunday, was on a 23-match winning streak and last lost to Federer in the Cincinnati final on August 23.
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While it earned world number eight Nishikori another $167,000, the reward for a group win, it is likely to prove in vain unless he beats Federer in his final match and Berdych defeats Djokovic. “I knew it was an important serve to get Novak off the court”, said Federer.
“You have to get to the bottom of that, have to get to the cause”, Djokovic said.
This time there was no lapse and, although Djokovic saved one match point, he put a backhand wide on the second, with Federer giving a little shake of the head as the world number one fruitlessly appealed to HawkEye.
But with his timing well off, he was brushed aside 7-5 6-2 by the 17-times grand slam champion who is already through to the semi-finals, probably as victor of the Stan Smith Group, with another round-robin match still to come.
Federer, who guarantees his semi-final place with this win, rode his momentum to establish an early 2-0 second set lead, then squandered it again for 2-2.
Djokovic’s first indoor loss since 2012, in which time he has won three consecutive London year-enders, means he needs to beat Czech Tomas Berdych on Thursday to be sure of joining Federer in the semi-finals.
“I didn’t have this follow-through on my shots, no depth, many mistakes”. Last shot, I went for it, closed my eyes.
The world number one won just 25% of points behind his first serve in the second set – symptomatic of his disappointing form, and far from a winning statistic.
Such celebration seemed a lifetime away when the Swiss was break point down in the opening game, but Federer served his way out of trouble – he racked up an impressive six aces – and made more inroads into the Djokovic serve the longer this one went on. I made a lot of, lot of unforced errors.
Nishikori said he was looking forward to Thursday’s clash with Federer, the youngest player in the tournament facing the oldest. In what has become arguably the greatest rivalry in the history of Open era men’s tennis, Djokovic missed his golden chance to finally edge in front of Federer in their head-to-head after nine years of trying. “Credit to Roger for mixing up the pace. If you play this way against Roger, you have no chance”.
Unlike in those championship-round contests, Federer on Tuesday night gave himself a big psychological lift by winning the first set at the O2 arena, thus avoiding having to play catch-up against a younger opponent.
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“Just try to have a good one for the last match of the season”, said Berdych.
