The UK’s Office for National Statistics did note that the underlying pattern in the data, by a 3 month on 3 month movement in the quantity bought, showed growth for the 23rd consecutive month, increasing by +0.9%.
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Compared with September 2015, sales volume was estimated to have decreased by -0.6% in October, below the expected decline of -0.5%, and below the prior revised increase of +1.7%.
Household goods stores reported a 3.1% rise in sales from October previous year, but only following a 2.3% cut in prices.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said October’s drop in sales “looks to be a one-off and masks a reassuringly solid underlying trend”.
“This is likely a result of store prices continuing to fall”.
Retail sales volumes rose 3.8 per cent compared with a year ago, compared with a 6.2 per cent annual rise in September, undershooting a Reuters poll forecast for 4.2 per cent. Core Retail Sales also printed figures below expectations.
Over the past year food and fuel have had the biggest drags on sales after a 3.6% decline in fuel sales and 1.5% fall in food.
The coming weeks are of vital importance for retailers as they hope to cash in from the Christmas shopping season. “Or will retailers decide that less aggressive is needed this year due to consumers’ improved purchasing power and relatively high confidence?” he said.
Keith Richardson, managing director of retail at Lloyds Bank said: ‘Retailers may be busy planning for Black Friday, but these figures suggest that shoppers are preparing too. “We would be very surprised if the retail atmosphere did not pick up in November, especially given the United Kingdom consumer’s inexorable love of all things “Black Friday”.
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And added: ‘In the long term, we expect retailers to increasingly adopt more personal modes of commerce’.
