The conventional wisdom would be that once the Friday attack on Paris took place that the voters would take a longer look at the more establishment candidates like Florida Sen.
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A new WBUR poll released on Wednesday showed Trump continuing to hold a commanding lead among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, the key first-in-the-nation primary state.
Trump received 27% among the 353 Republicans surveyed, followed by Rubio (13%) and Cruz (11%).
“I’d say the chance of Trump or Carson winning is probably 10% or lower, but still, you know, I’m not going to sit here confidently and say, ‘Oh, it’s impossible for them to win, ‘ because the GOP may be a bit different than usual”, Silver said. According to the poll, only 11 percent of Hispanics have a favorable view of the businessman.
“I think his attitude will get him through it”, said Gracie Blevins, a Harlan, Kentucky resident attending the Knoxville rally, adding that the USA needs a “bold and blunt person” in the White House. His 21 percent in the latest poll is a 9-percentage-point boost from that late October poll, which showed Trump and Carson in a dead heat. Carson has also asserted that “the Chinese are there” in Syria, a statement interpreted as saying the Chinese military is operating in Syria.
Although Trump aides said the Republican presidential front-runner meant to say he wants to create a terrorist watch list as opposed to registering Muslims, Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush quickly pounced, with Bush telling CNBC “you talk about closing mosques, you talk about registering people – that’s just wrong”. Similarly, Rubio’s name recognition is also underwater at 42 percent to 47 percent but improves to 67 percent to 23 percent among GOP primary voters.
“It’s the interviews and the debates and the news conferences”, said Carson supporter Barb Clayton of Spirit Lake, Iowa.
When Carson was last in Iowa, he found himself behind frontrunner Donald Trump in the polls.
In the Fox survey, Christie polls just 6 percent among voters who describe themselves as conservative.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont would actually fare better than Clinton against Republicans in a general election, but not by much. Rubio leads among Hispanic voters with 34%, but Trump and Carson tie for second at 19.1%, and Bush trailing at 12.8%.
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The attacks in Paris instantly shifted the political conversation, and led to many predictions that this was the event that would finally make Republican primary voters reconsider their preference for extreme political outsiders. Carson had briefly pulled ahead of Trump in polls conducted earlier this month. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
