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United Kingdom third quarter GDP in line with expectations
The pace of overall growth was unchanged at 0.5% in the third quarter – down from 0.7% between April and June.
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Britain’s recovery slowed in the third quarter as growth was dampened by the biggest drag from net trade on record, official figures showed on Friday.
The slowdown in the UK’s recovery reflects the global situation led by emerging markets such as China.
The slowdown in the United Kingdom economic growth seen in the third quarter will be temporary but imbalances may persist, Scott Bowman, an economist at Capital Economics, said. Both business- and consumer-oriented services grew strongly, pointing to increasingly robust domestic demand.
“No surprises in the second estimate as the economy was ticking over, including a chunky contribution from business investment, which has had an unbroken run of expansion for a year”, said Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation.
In the second quarter, the economy had expanded 0.7 percent.
Manufacturing recessionManufacturing output contracted for a third consecutive quarter.
The construction sector, where growth tends to be volatile from quarter to quarter, contracted 2.2% in the third quarter, the ONS said.
“In terms of the breakdown, consumer spending did most of the heavy lifting…”
The trade blow was blamed on a stronger pound and a much more uncertain global climate, with exports rising 0.9 per cent but imports surging by 5.5 per cent – the biggest rise over a single quarter since 2006.
At his autumn statement and spending review this week, Osborne said a projected £27bn improvement in the public finances compared with his last budget in July, meant he had been able to soften a planned spending squeeze and lift the threat of tax credit cuts.
Another report from ONS showed that the Index of Services increased by 2.7 percent in September from a year ago. This against an expected and preceding print of 2.
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Eventually, we’d therefore expect third quarter GDP to be adjusted up to 0.6% as the trade data get revised.