An Alabama loss to the Tigers, coupled with a Mississippi win over Mississippi State, would put the Rebels in the championship game – likely ending any national championship hopes for the SEC as well. Get by Auburn and Florida is next in the conference title game. Both Alabama and Florida must win out to reach the CFP. Starting at the very top and working the way down, just like the CFP committee does it, start with the top team and flow everything from there.
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That doesn’t mean, though, that Notre Dame is necessarily looking to not only win at Stanford, but win big. They’d have to work their way over Baylor and Notre Dame, but a clear-cut, one-loss conference champion probably has a stronger case.
Let’s take a look at who deserves to be in the top four after week 12.
The good part about it for Notre Dame is, they have the opportunity to prove me wrong.
#6 Notre Dame: Lose to Stanford this weekend. Instead, look for the once-dead Spartans to win the East division this week, whip undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten championship game and earn a chance to play for it all.
Clemson and Alabama remained the top two teams in the third-to-last committee rankings.
No. 8 Ohio State at No. 12 MI. The nightmare scenario for the Big Ten would be Iowa losing at Nebraska, and then winning the conference.
Michigan State jumped three spots to No. 6 after upsetting Ohio State, 17-14.
In Les Miles’ 11th season as its head coach, Louisiana State entered November with an unbeaten record and a CFP berth squarely in its sights. Saturday, the Sooners will try to complete the regular season with a win at 11th ranked Oklahoma State in a rivalry game simply called “Bedlam”. Baylor also has a December 4 game against Texas (4-6) in Waco.
That has Big 12 fans understandably wondering if the league is setup for another fall from No. 3 even if the Sooners take care of business on Saturday in Stillwater. And basically, the committee appears to clearly like Oklahoma better than Notre Dame at the moment.
If Ohio State deserved their place in the top four last season, then as of right now Notre Dame does as well. While the top two remain unchanged, expect to hear Committee Chairman Jeff Long express that numbers three through six gave them significant headaches.
Navy, at number 15, are still the highest ranking team from outside the Power 5 conferences, with Toledo and Temple closing the list at 24 and 25 after both Memphis and Houston have fallen out of the rankings.
The Gators have clinched their spot in the SEC championship game, but few are feeling great about the way they have been playing.
Florida dropped from No. 8 to 10th after avoiding a major upset and posting a 20-14 nonconference overtime victory over Florida Atlantic. All that said, if Florida can beat Florida State this week and follow it with a victory over potentially Alabama in the conference title game, it would be another team that would be hard to keep out of the field. Rhoads is due a $4.5 million buyout under the terms of that deal.
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If Michigan State loses, the victor of Ohio State-Michigan will go to play Iowa. The way things stand, if Michigan State and Iowa win this weekend, their Big Ten Championship matchup will send the victor to the playoff, for sure.
