Monmouth drew its sample from lists of registered voters who voted in at least one prior state primary, in a recent general election or registered to vote in the past year.
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Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has surpassed Donald Trump and Ben Carson in Iowa, a new poll finds, giving the Texas Republican his first lead of the cycle in an early voting state.
The poll suggests Trump may be able to overtake Cruz, however, if he is able to draw new Republican supporters to the typically low-turnout caucuses.
Two conflicting political polls released Monday said there are two Republican front-runners in Iowa, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.
Based on Brown’s assessment, she is suggesting there is at least a possibility that Trump’s current high numbers could be as much the product of poor polling practices as of any genuine surge in popularity.
In the CNN/ORC Iowa poll, Trump has jumped seven points from the last CNN/ORC poll taken November 6 and holds a commanding lead over Cruz, who also moved up.
Iowa allows participants in the caucuses to register at any time before the caucus, including on-site just before it begins.
Trump remains the No. 1 GOP candidate on The Chase, U.S. News’ rankings of the candidates most likely to win their party’s nomination at a given time. Rubio also rose slightly, gaining 4 points since October’s poll.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton maintains an 18-point lead over Vermont Sen.
“Gun control” is not the answer, Rubio told about 180 voters at a Seacoast Republican Women’s luncheon at a country club in the small town of Greenland.
“From a technical perspective, I understand that these national polls are not good at predicting what people want them to predict”, said Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster with the firm Echelon Insights. The margin of error for the 345 Democrats/Democrat leaners polled is +/- 5.4 points.
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In October, Carson led Monmouth’s survey with 32% of support of Iowa GOP caucus goers, while Cruz trailed with 10%.
