While declines in emissions have previously occurred during periods of economic crisis, this would be the first decline during a period of strong global economic growth.
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According to the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change and presented here at COP21 in Paris, emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels and industry are likely to have fallen 0.6% in 2015.
It’s all about the money in Paris this week where negotiators opened the second and final week of talks on climate change.
The report found that emissions growth is falling in many countries, and contracting in others, to the point that global emissions rose by only by 0.6 per cent in 2014; in the previous decade emissions had grown, on average, by 2.4 per cent a year.
Research published by the Global Carbon Project shows global carbon emissions dropped about 0.5% in 2015, compared with 2-3% growth each year since 2000. The UEA report suggests emissions and economic growth have detached, not because of accountancy tricks or quirks of the weather, but because of massive investment in Chinese renewable energy and energy efficiency that has enabled a measurable slowdown in the country’s appetite for coal – an investment surge that has been backed by the sustained reductions in U.S. and European emissions enabled by their own coal to gas and clean energy switch and historic reductions in energy use. That’s the most exciting piece of this puzzle: “We’re seeing a flattening or decline in emissions at a time when the global economy is still growing robustly”.
The stall in emissions is being credited to factors like the fact that China is now home to the largest solar array in the world, the Huanghe solar farm on the Qinghai plateau, with some four million solar panels. Carbon dioxide is the big kahuna of greenhouse gases: It’s linked to 14 of the 15 hottest years on record coming in this century, with this year poised to break last year’s record.
But others argue that China’s appetite for coal will revive when the economy picks up, even if the days of double-digit growth are over.
“All the studies show that we can have continued economic prosperity and declining and ultimate zero emissions”, Mr Connor said. “I certainly think they will”, Le Quere says, because China’s economy is bound to revive.
China’s emissions growth is predicted to decline by four per cent this year, however the nation’s coal use remained the largest uncertainty for global emissions into the future. But it appears increasingly self-evident emissions can be reduced as economic prosperity and poverty eradication continues.
Although China is only responsible for 27% of global emissions, it has dominated the growth in global emissions since early 2000s. Dr Canadell said all nations needed to be more ambitious and ramp up their emissions targets.
The memorandum will pave the way for Manitoba to join the Western Climate Initiative, a group of US states and Canadian provinces moving to develop a carbon market in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that already includes Ontario and Quebec.
The study was conducted by the Global Carbon Project and headed by scientists at Stanford University.
“The major contributor to this change has been decreased coal consumption in China”, Executive-Director of the GCP and co-author of the report CSIRO’s, Dr Pep Canadell says. Hydraulic fracturing – fracking – has caused Carbon dioxide emissions to decline even as more Americans are born and have access to cheap energy, and America is among the top Carbon dioxide polluters due to little in the way of nuclear power.
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The EU as a whole created 10% of the total world output, but is seeing declines of 2.4% year on year over the past decade, and last year its cuts offset India’s increasing emissions. Emissions from Australia, Europe, Japan and Russian Federation have all come down as part of longer or more recent trends.
