It now projects total PC shipments of 268.3 million in 2016, which would mark a year-over-year decline of 3.1%, versus its prior forecast of a 1.1% decline.
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Global shipments of PCs are expected to fall 10% this quarter from last year’s holiday shopping period, pushing full-year shipments down 10.3% to 276.7 million, according to estimates from industry tracker IDC.
However, shipments are expected to stabilize by the end of 2016 and grow slightly toward the end of the forecast as commercial replacements rise. Moreover, 2015 expects to be the highest growth for the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region and the shipments are expected to surpass “hot growth” markets like India and Indonesia by increasing almost 50% year over year.
Contrastingly, the forecast for the United States, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) will be only slightly lower, and Canada improved slightly.
The analyst firm said that a declining tablet market, and minimal growth in mobile phones despite the continuing shift to smartphones, will help to make the PC market look relatively healthy next year.
According to market research firm IDC, smartphone shipments globally this year will grow only 9.8 percent.
Despite the alarming decrease in global sales, IDC research Vice President Loren Loverde noted that some consumers might actually use the free Windows 10 update to understand the operating system before buying a new desktop, especially if the current hardware does not support the useful touchscreen capabilities offered by Windows 10.
As for Windows 10 and its impact on PC sales, IDC says that the new operating system has failed to make a difference mostly because people chose to hold back from purchasing a new computer as they could upgrade the existing one to the new operating system free of charge.
Moreover, the preference of people to buy tablets and smartphones instead of PCs does not mean that consumers have gotten rid of desktops and laptops.
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In numerous high growth markets, the replacement cycles will be less than the usual two-years, mainly due to the components that are part of the smartphone sub-$100 price do not operate for over two years on average. In addition, with the demand for tablets dropping and growth in the smartphone space slowing, consumers will turn more of their technology dollars toward PCs. IDC expects the downward trend to continue through at least the first half of next year. “As detachable systems become more compelling (including attractive new Wintel designs), some volume will go to detachable tablets rather than traditional PC form factors, which will cut into the PC growth rate, but still supports the PC vendors and ecosystem”.
