Thanks largely to the economic slowdown in China, which translates into slightly less coal use, coupled with the rapid rise of renewable energy, global emissions are projected to fall by about 0.6 per cent his year, according to a new study released Monday by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in England.
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While there is some good news, Stanford University’s Professor Rob Jackson, lead author of the report, said even if peak global emissions were reached within a decade or two, massive amounts carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels will still be generated. Economic growth there has slowed (but not stopped) recently, and significant efforts to move away from a dirtier industrial economy, and away from the use of coal, contributed to a projected 3.9 decrease in emissions for 2015, according to the researchers.
The four biggest emitters in 2014 were China, the United States, the European Union and India.
Researchers estimate that more than half of China’s growth in energy consumption is now coming from non-fossil fuel sources, with more uptake in hydro and nuclear power.
Although it is unlikely that we have reached global peak emissions, it is very likely that 2015 marks a new era of slower growth in fossil fuel emissions.
The scientists conducted the research on behalf of the Global Carbon Project, an organization that provides regular examinations of the global carbon cycle. But when asked if he trusts Chinese official emissions reporting figures, Peters paused for a long time and said, “you certainly have your doubts”.
Green groups Seas At Risk and Transport & Environment (T&E) also voiced their concern, saying in a joint statement Wednesday that “the dropping of worldwide aviation and shipping emissions from the draft Paris climate agreement published this afternoon has fatally undermined the prospects of keeping global warming below 2°C”. “An acceleration in the transformation of energy use and production is needed to set global emissions on course to complete decarbonization, as required for climate stabilization”.
Dr. Canadell, however, warned that the slight drop in the emissions may not mean the world has changed its attitude and perspective towards climate change.
The drop is evidence of changing behavior as countries invest more in renewable energy.
“What we are now seeing is that emissions appear to have stalled and they could even decline in 2015”, she said.
JOYCE: That’s lowered China’s Carbon dioxide emissions a startling 4 percent this year. “This would make quality companies become better and phase out those that have high emission volumes”, Song Zhiping, chairman of China National Bulding Materials Group, said.
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“Emissions aren’t zero, it’s just that they aren’t rising or declining much from 36 billion tons of Carbon dioxide per year from fossil fuels and cement. So there are a few things that indicate emissions to peak around 2030 – but I hope that they’ll be able to peak their emissions even before that, maybe by 2020 if they put appropriate policies in place”.
