The U.S. interest rate hike may complicate efforts to halt that slowdown.
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On inflation, he saw it rising toward the Fed’s 2-percent goal next year as the effects of a strong dollar and falling energy prices dissipate. But the greenback has since eased to around 1.083 against the euro – the Fed’s 25-basis-point rise to 0.5 percent is unlikely to be repeated soon, according to market consensus. But nervous investors have been looking for further assurances.
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Due to such complexity, experts here are widely divided over what course of action the BOK should take going forward, with diverse opinion on the need for a rate hike. But Yellen said she doubts the committee will proceed in “equally spaced hikes”. “The new year will once again prove to be quite volatile as markets will start to anticipate the next rate hike”.
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That second, slower stage of economic growth in 2017 and 2018, he said, will occur as the Fed gradually raises its target interest rate to around 3.25 percent to 3.5 percent, a level he sees as the likely long-run neutral rate.
“It’s a seminal event”, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, a research unit of the ratings agency Moody’s Corp.
Hong Kong’s top central banker, who was obliged to immediately match the Fed’s hike under the Chinese-run territory’s peg to the U.S. dollar, said he expected only a modest outflow of capital as a result of the Fed’s move, but added that outflows would depend on the pace of United States rate hikes and the interest rate differential between the USA dollar and Hong Kong dollar. Policy makers separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016, implying four quarter-point increases next year, based on the median number from 17 officials.
The average interest rate on a savings account is only about 0.48 percent right now, according to Bankrate, and even after a Fed rate hike, banks have no incentive to pass on any of the increase to their customers, which means interest on deposits will remain near rock bottom.
That’s because the exchange-rate more than offsets the decline, as imported gas is priced in USA dollars.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was up 1.8pc at 1,441.51 points by 0804 GMT after climbing to a one-week high, while Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 1.4pc to 2.1pc.
The Fed has chosen to raise rates slowly in order to avoid slowing down the economy.
While it seems too early in either the interest rate cycle or the economic cycle to be overly concerned about future prospects, the investment environment remains very volatile.
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The last time Canadians heard from Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz, he talked about the potential of lowering interest rates below zero per cent in the event of a crisis, but insisted the bank has no plans to do that.
