OPEC forecast on Thursday that oil supply from non-member countries will fall more sharply next year, a development that would suggest its strategy of defending market share is working.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures were at $36.41 per barrel, down 35 cents after touching $36.12, their lowest since February 2009.
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Brent futures were 24 cents lower $39.87 per barrel at 1340 GMT, having traded as high as $40.70.
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The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday estimated a contraction of 380,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in non-OPEC supply which is set to average 57.14m bbl/d in 2016, a downward revision of 250,000 bbl/d from its previous estimate. In deciding not to cut, OPEC signaled that it was content to keep output at record levels of at least 30 million barrels a day, a level often exceeds as evidenced by monthly output data.
“Lower prices are clearly taking a toll on non-OPEC supply with annual growth shrinking below 0.3 million barrels a day in November from 2.2 million barrels a day at the start of the year”, the IEA said.
Last month, OPEC pumped 31.695 million barrels of crude per day, an increase of 230,100 from its level in October.
“Low world oil prices will likely to accelerate the decline of Azerbaijani oil in 2016 compared to 2015”, OPEC considers.
“You’re just seeing a continuing of the bearish psychology: inventories are very high, production is high, demand is weak and there’s just no real news out there to motor the prices”, said Mike Lynch of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil prices to remain low through 2016, but forecasts a rebound to begin in 2017 as the current oil glut recedes and demand rises. As per Iran’s Oil Minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, inspite of a global surplus, members are liberated to pump as much as they desire.
“Non-OPEC growth year-on-year is grinding to a halt, so some of the effects from low oil prices are starting to appear”, said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultants Energy Aspects Ltd.in London.
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Iraqi production grew by over 246,500 barrels per day to more than 4.3 billion daily in November, according to source citing the new report, which did not announce a reason for the increase.
