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Ted Cruz tops Trump in Iowa, surges nationally: Darcy cartoon
In August, just 38% said Trump brought the Republicans their best chances. A Trump nomination, however, will also likely goose minority turnout and anti-Trump turnout, and I think Hillary will mop the floor with Trump in the debates, which might actually mean something this time. As for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), he is pilfering votes from Trump (tied in SC at 27 percent, behind by 8 in New Hampshire and 11 in Florida).
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There are signs in the poll that Cruz’s debate performance may have helped improve his appeal.
“Among adults with a bachelor’s degree or postgraduate degree, Trump performs about 10 percentage points better online than via live telephone”. Cruz’s favorability rating has jumped 22 points among Republican voters since September, and he now holds the highest favorability rating among Republican voters of any of the seven candidates tested. His favorables in New Hampshire and other early states, a complete reversal from earlier in the year, suggest he has room to grow.
Remember, no Republican candidate in the modern era has enjoyed this large a lead at this stage in the process and failed to win the GOP nomination.
For example if SC goes to a three-person race, Rubio doubles his support and zooms up to 24 points while Cruz picks up only 5 percentage points. After Christie, nobody is averaging above 3%.
“She was favored to win, and she got schlonged”, Trump said.
“It’s clear that the candidates who best empathize with those sentiments (i.e., Trump and Cruz) will have the best starting position as the 2016 primaries begin”.
Donald Trump is fond of saying that his supporters constitute a “silent majority” of Americans fed up with political correctness and business as usual. With Christie, it’d be a true “centrist versus conservative” race against Cruz, which is a big risk – especially if Trump fans line up with Cruz.
With Cruz, however, Trump faces an opponent who has so far refused to publically criticize the billionaire businessman and one who is seen as one of the strongest debaters in the crowded GOP field. But 58 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind.
Trump’s campaign did not return Fox News Latino’s request for comment.
Among Democrats, Clinton tops Sanders 61 – 30 percent. “It is hard today to envision the GOP nominating a candidate that about 40 percent of them collectively view unfavorably”.
There was also a split between “engaged voters” – people who say they are very interested in the election or have previously voted in primaries or midterms – and the general registered voter population.
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Ben Carson seemed perfectly pleased to accept Trump’s compliment as “one of the finest men” – even though Trump had been denouncing him as pathological and a liar a couple of weeks earlier. If I were a big-name Republican like Mitt, I’d endorse Rubio the first week of January, when people start paying attention to politics again, and then hit the trail for him ASAP.