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Oil prices plunge amid renewed oversupply worries
Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index added 0.2 percent to 18,807.84 while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.1 percent to 3,625.03.
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The good news for USA producers was quickly crushed when news from Iran indicated that 500,000 to 800,000 new barrels of oil will be on the market as soon as the sanctions are lifted, which should be in the first quarter of 2016.
Brent, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, is poised to end 2015 with the lowest annual average price in 11 years, hurting oil- exporting countries and companies.
“As we have always placed our hopes on decreasing USA production to help ease the global oversupply, this could prolong any possible recovery to oil prices”, he said in a market commentary.
Goldman Sachs suggested that oil prices could be near 40 USA dollars per barrel, or roughly the current trading price.
Front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were trading at $37.87 per barrel at 0311 GMT, down 23 cents from their last settlement. The most-active contract fell for the first time in five days. Prices rose 60 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $38.10 on Thursday, the highest since December 4. The same study found that ending the ban would not put up petrol prices (since these are set in the freely traded world market) – they would probably fall a bit. The volume of all futures trading was 41 percent below the 100-day average. February Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $1.15, or 3%, to $36.74 a barrel.
“Further evidence of continued drawdown in the U.S. crude oil inventory could strengthen WTI in the near term and widen its spread over Brent”, Gupta noted.
Brent oil prices are still on track to post an annual decline of 35% this year, as oversupply concerns dominated market sentiment for most of the year. Overseas shipments should climb by 1 million barrels a day within six months, he said.
OPEC’s production in 2016 will remain modestly above the current level, at 31.8 million barrels per day, while that of Iraq, an OPEC member, will be slightly below its current level and Iran, also an OPEC member, will see a modest growth in output, said Damien Corvallis, analyst of Goldman Sachs in a report.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided on December 4 against cutting its collective production rates to support prices. U.S. exporters may also start to produce their own “refinery-specific export cocktails” by mixing heavy Canadian crude with lighter shale oil.
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Saudi Arabia on Monday announced plans to shrink a record state budget deficit with spending cuts and a drive to raise revenues from sources other than oil. Analysts expect this price structure to stay in place, especially should global markets suffer from slowing demand and ongoing high supplies while the United States tightens.