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Crude oil prices drop more than 1 percent as weak outlook prevails
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are both trading lower today on falling oil prices. Earlier in 2014, Mr. Naimi was reported to have said that the highest exporting member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would not support prices by lowering its production rates, allowing other countries to gain market share.
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US crude stockpiles rose by 2.63 million barrels through December 25 and production increased for a third week, the EIA said in a report Wednesday.
WTI for February delivery was at $36.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 10 cents, at 3:50 p.m. Hong Kong time. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forward curve is nearly the same, already factoring in a flip into a premium over Brent that reappeared for the first time in years this month, but which has yet to be reflected in most analyst forecasts.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 2% to $37.02 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.
Russian Federation and OPEC are so far showing few signs of reining in production, leading traders to establish record high active short positions in the market that would profit from further crude price falls.
The Iranian government expects a crude price of $40 in 2016, and Saudi Arabia has announced that it will drastically trim public spending, but the Brent barrel, the reference for Europe, is still at its lowest level for the last 11 years. That’s good news for American drivers who have enjoyed the lowest gasoline prices in six years.
“It is a tough data set for the bulls to deal with as we end 2015, “said John Kilduff, partner at NY energy hedge fund Again Capital”. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, is reducing its dependence on oil revenue due to the slump in prices while boosting production to defend its market share. This means that even the most aggressive estimates of expected US production cuts of 500,000 bpd for 2016 would be unlikely to fully rebalance the market. While it has fallen from a peak of 9.6 million barrels a day in April, output has remained stable at around 9.1 million barrels a day in recent months.
US heating oil, also known as Ultra Light Sulfur Diesel (ULSD), rose almost 4 percent to above $1.13 a gallon, leading the energy complex higher and rising with natural gas, another heating fuel.
Oil prices struggled in subdued Asian trade Tuesday on tepid economic data from Japan and indications that major crude exporter Saudi Arabia’s 2016 budget is based on prices staying low.
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Iran’s crude oil exports could rise by half a million barrels per day within 6-12 months once sanctions against it are removed.