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What’s the Impact of Crude Oil Production on Inventory levels?
The immediate outlook for oil prices remains bleak, with some analysts like Goldman Sachs saying prices as low as $20 per barrel might be necessary to push enough production out of business and allow a rebalancing of the market.
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The swift action to cut subsidies was unexpected, even if there had been no doubt Saudi Arabia would post a deficit this year as oil prices have dropped below $40 a barrel since mid-2014.
Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund’s Christine Lagarde said today that the global growth in 2016 would be “disappointing”. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose $1.06, or 2.9%, to finish at $37.87 a barrel.
Brent was down 80 cents at US$36.99 a barrel, a decline of roughly 2%.
Sanjeev Gupta, head of the Asia oil and gas practice at professional services firm EY, said “a host of economic data due from the United States, including the closely watched unemployment rate, and China will set the tone for crude oil prices for the first trading week of 2016”.
Japan’s industrial output fell 1.0 percent in November from the previous month, government data showed on Monday, suggesting that sluggish emerging market demand continues to cloud the outlook for the economy.
Disputes between Iran and rival Saudi Arabia have sparked disunity among OPEC’s 13 members, which issued only vague references to production levels after its last regular meeting in early December. With one day remaining in 2015, the S&P is up just 0.2 per cent on the year.
USA crude stockpiles probably fell for a second week through December 25, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey before the EIA report.
On the USA two-year note US2YT=RR, the yield closed at 1.095 percent on Tuesday after earlier touching its highest level since April 2010.
Asali also predicted that global demand for crude oil will exceed 94 million barrels per day in 2016, and that the price of oil will not surpass $60 per barrel before 2020. The dollar was 0.1 per cent higher against a basket of major currencies. The euro slipped to $1.0945 from $1.0985 in the previous session. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.2 per cent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rallied 0.9 per cent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index increased 0.6 per cent.
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After settlement, industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a weekly rise of nearly three million barrels in USA crude inventories, not the draw expected by many analysts and traders.