Global oil benchmark Brent and USA crude’s West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose between 1 and 2 percent on the day on short-covering and buying support in a thinly traded market ahead of the New Year holiday. Prices rebounded despite Saudi Arabia’s planned cuts to 2016 spending that are based on a Brent price next year of $37 a barrel, according to John Sfakianakis, a Riyadh-based economist at Ashmore Group Plc and a former government adviser.
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“If crude holds here, it is still not a breakdown”, said Jeffrey Grossman, futures dealer at BRG Brokerage in NY.
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While he’s not willing to match the $20 per barrel forecasts of some, McGillian said the WTI price could easily retreat to the $32.40 per barrel, reached in the thick of the financial crisis in late 2008.
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US crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week on a bigger-than-expected build in distillate and gasoline inventories and higher imports, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Analysts expect this price structure to stay in place, especially should global markets suffer from slowing demand and a continuing oil surplus while domestic supplies in the United States tighten. Total volume traded was about 5 percent below the 100-day average. The inventory data came as a surprise to many, as economists polled by Bloomberg had anticipated for the agency to report a draw of 1.77 million barrels for the week.
February Brent crude LCOG6, -1.08% on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.43, or 1.1%, to $37.36 a barrel. Brent prices were set for a third year of declines after ending 2013 slightly lower and falling sharply over the past two years.
Over the year, the black stuff fell by 36 per cent. While U.S. output is down from a peak in April, production has fallen more slowly in response to low prices than many investors initially expected.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, effectively rejected calls to reduce its crude production in a bid to boost prices at a meeting earlier this month. Inventories dropped sharply – by 6 million barrels the previous week.
The glut may deepen as the worst flooding across the US Midwest in four years shut some oil pipelines and terminals near St. Louis.
Enbridge Inc’s closure on Tuesday of part of its Ozark pipeline, which runs from Cushing to Wood River in southern IL, fueled those worries. S not last for long.
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Demand over the past four weeks has fallen by 11.3 percent to 3.6 million barrels per day from a year ago.
