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Inventory Data Adds to Oil Perils
“Oil prices will fluctuate between $35 and $50 per barrel in the coming years and there will be no worries regarding Iran’s oil income”, he said.
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“Oil has been driven lower in the aftermath of the API data and in this period of low liquidity it doesn’t take much to move the prices”, Van Cleef said by phone from Amsterdam.
Crude futures have dived from more than $100 a barrel in July 2014 on the strong dollar and the stubborn worldwide oil supply glut.
One change in oil trading has been that WTI flipped to a premium versus Brent CL-LCO1=R this month after the United States lifted a decades-old ban on exporting US crude oil.
Bloomberg News, however, announced that even in the case of decline in United States stockpiles there would be supplies more than 120 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average.
Brent finished up $1.17, or 3.2 per cent, at $37.79 a barrel.
International Monetary Fund, IMF, has projected that crude oil prices may slump to an all-time low of $20 per barrel in 2016, indicating that the prices could drop by between $5 and $15 between now and next year.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading down 2.4% at $36.95 a barrel. The contract lost $1.27 to $36.60 on Wednesday.
Crude resumed its decline in Asia ahead of the release of data on USA crude stockpiles and production, keeping alive concerns about demand and the strength of the global economy.
Many traders and analysts expected prices to remain under pressure, noting that global oversupply was expected to grow in 2016.
“We have brimming oil inventories in Europe”, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodity analyst at SEB in Oslo, said.
US heating oil, also known as Ultra Light Sulfur Diesel (ULSD), rose almost 4 percent to above $1.13 a gallon, leading the energy complex higher and rising with natural gas, another heating fuel.
Stock markets rallied the previous day as oil prices rebounded on prospects for lower temperatures on both sides of the Atlantic (Shanghai: 600558.SS – news).
The oil group held back on cutting its 30-million-ton production ceiling at its most recent policy meeting, held earlier in December, with kingpin Saudi Arabia standing firm against calls by some other members for an output cut. The share price of $31 is at a distance of 10.71 percent from its 52-week low and down -55.28 percent versus its peak.
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Analysts estimate global crude production exceeds demand by between half a million and 2million barrels a day and it is estimated that there are 3billion barrels in storage around the world.