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Oil prices fell 35%. What now?
“The oil prices in the next year (2016) will fluctuate between $35 to $50, so Iran is not anxious about a fall of its oil income”, Mehdi Asali said, Reuters reported.
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Ahead of the official data from the US Department of Energy’s statistical arm, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute suggested that inventory levels increased in the country by 2.9 million barrels during the week.
The news renewed investors’ concerns about the global supply glut, which dragged down oil prices recently.
Oil prices could, however, draw some support if data shows a drawdown in US weekly oil stocks.
Crude prices held losses after falling more than 3 percent in the previous session, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures trading around $36.70 per barrel at 0300 GMT on Thursday and Brent around $36.60 per barrel.
Trading volumes are expected to remain light, reducing liquidity in the market which could result in exaggerated moves.
Additionally, US crude output is poised to grow for a seventh straight year, and Russian producers are proving resilient to the price slump. “If US inventories expand, it’ll put the market on a shakier foundation for the start of 2016”.
Brent for February settlement advanced 39 cents to $36.85 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Added to the picture, the United States – the world’s biggest consumer of crude – revealed Wednesday that oil inventories swelled by 2.6 million barrels to 487.4 million barrels last week.
According to Afi analysts, the trend in crude prices is being clearly affected by the fact that there are continuous upward revisions to crude supply worldwide, while demand is not picking up with the same intensity.
Oil prices seem to have taken the place of the Fed in headlines and market focus.
“There is a long way to go before global supply and demand rebalancing occurs”, Angus Nicholson, a market analyst at IG Ltd.in Melbourne, said by phone.
Also on Thursday, President Hassan Rouhani ordered his defense minister on Thursday to expand Iran’s missile programme, in response to a US threat to impose sanctions over a ballistic missile test Iran carried out in October.
On Wednesday, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde warned that global economic growth would be “disappointing” in 2016, with the prospect of rising USA interest rates and a slowdown in China contributing to a higher risk of vulnerability.
Oversupply woes were also stoked on Friday by the Baker Hughes US oil rig count which showed an increase of 17 for the week ending December 18 to 541 rigs.
Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) has 677.26M outstanding shares, at current price of $12.38 each.
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Brent front month futures were trading down by 3.57% at $36.44 per barrel at the same time.