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Atlantic could have a subtropical storm this month. What are the chances?

The Hurricane Center will issue its next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system by 3 p.m. Friday. This does not include subtropical storms, although it appears that only two such storms have developed over the same time-frame in January.

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Sufficiently warm sea-surface temperatures and relatively low wind shear in the vicinity of the system suggest that this system may be able to organize into a tropical storm later Thursday.

The hurricane center said that the storm was already producing gale-force winds of 60-65 miles per hour as it moved east-southeastward.

Conditions could become more favorable for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics while it changes direction to the east-southeast and moves into the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean by the middle of next week.

Although the storm does not now have tropical characteristics, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring it for possible development into a subtropical storm later this weekend or next week.

Subtropical cyclone: A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

There have been three tropical storms since 1851 listed in the center’s hurricane database as having formed in January. Going a little down the memory lane, we have had the Tropical Depression Nine-C at the fag end of the year, which dissipated on January 1, 2016.

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Atlantic could have a subtropical storm this month. What are the chances?