Areas on the cold side of that transition zone could see extremely heavy snow while areas on the warm side of it see mostly rain.
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The forecast models are showing good consistency on a potentially large winter storm that will move across Texas on Thursday with heavy rain across much of the South and ending with snow across much of the Northeast on Sunday. Heavy snowfall is likely to occur in Washington, D.C. This track appears to be less likely at this time. A distance of less than 50 miles could bring snowfall ranging from an inch or less to more than a foot.
The exact track of a storm will hold the key as to which areas in mid-Atlantic and New England are hit with heavy snow. The storm could shut down highways and perhaps cause airports to close. As the trough supporting this storm drives inland, there will also be some snow and rain over eastern Washington and eastern OR, spreading into Idaho.
Since the storm will strengthen rapidly and will tap plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean on its path, snowfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are possible.
The planets have gathered in the twelfth house of rest, the fox is pawing at the scorpion’s tail, and the hunchback has emptied his spittoon: a powerful winter storm is brewing, and it looks increasingly likely that New York City is in its path. Where that precipitation falls, and whether it falls as snow, rain, or a slushy mix, will have a lot to do with an unpredictable low pressure system.
Winter Storm Jonas is expected to spread a swath of snow, some of it heavy, from the OH and Tennessee Valleys across the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast later this week. Some coastal locations could witness thunder and lightning along with the heavy snowfall.
Where the snow becomes wet in nature, the weight of the snow and strength of the wind could lead to downed trees and power outages. With the combination of the astronomical high tides and the gusty northeasterly winds, a storm surge will develop bringing coastal flooding and beach erosion for several high tide cycles.
All those things aside, this is looking very much like a classic nor’easter, one that may paralyze parts of the mid-Atlantic for a time later Friday into the weekend. Despite the QPF totals, the latest GFS does suggest this storm may not slow down too much, and that may be due in part to the next system crashing into California by late Friday.
Little to no snow would likely fall over northwestern Pennsylvania, upstate NY and northern New England, Anderson stated.
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The main question is exactly where the northern and southern boundaries of the heaviest snow will be.
