We shall clarify the working definition of conspiracy theory here as being in line the characterisation of Sunstein et al [1] as “an effort to explain some event or practice by reference to the machinations of powerful people, who attempt to hide their role (at least until their aims are accomplished)”.While the modern usage of conspiracy theory is often derogatory (pertaining to an exceptionally paranoid and ill-founded world-view) the definition we will use does not a priori dismiss all such theories as inherently false. Another interesting point brought forth by the David Grimes is that considering the number of those involved, the USA moon landings would have been debunked in three years and eight months.
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“My results suggest that any conspiracy with over a few hundred people rapidly collapses, and big science conspiracies would not be sustainable”, Grimes told The Guardian.
He was able to show that the more people involved in a conspiracy, the shorter its lifespan is likely to be.
So, how did Dr. Grimes formulate his equation?
All those letters from people prompted him to investigate whether large-scale collusions were really feasible.
A scientist has used mathematics to disprove popular conspiracy theories.
“The charge that there is a scientific conspiracy afoot is a common one”, said Grimes, in an email interview with Live Science, “and nearly inevitably those making these charges will descend into accusing one of shilling or being an agent of some malignant entity”.
The analysis by Grimes shows all of them should have been revealed long ago if they had actually happened.
It factored in conspirator numbers, length of time, and even the effects of conspirators dying, whether of old age or non-natural causes. However, the equation was still incomplete and Dr. Grimes required a good estimate of the intrinsic probability for the failure of a conspiracy. And given that all it took was one Edward Snowden to expose NSA’s worldwide data-mining practices, the math doesn’t look to be far off.
An Oxford study has examined how long alleged conspiracies could “survive” before being exposed – deliberately or unwittingly – to the public at large.
If our leaders were liaising with aliens, it would not take long before everybody got to know about it.
‘To do that, I looked at the vital requirement for a viable conspiracy – secrecy’.
Based off all the figures from these bonafide conspiracy theories, Dr Grimes calculated that with an individual or very small group, the likelihood of a conspiracy failing would be as low as four in one million. The moon landing had an advantage over the other three scenarios because it could’ve potentially occurred without having to bring in new conspirators to preserve the hoax – this means the only people who are keeping secrets die off over time.
To keep a conspiracy secret for five years, you need fewer than 2,521 people involved.
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All of which are, obviously, vehemently denied by those who are accused of hiding up the truth, but this denial in the mind of a conspiracy theorist only cements their belief that a huge plot to hide the truth is the real reality. I hope that by showing how eye-wateringly unlikely some alleged conspiracies are, some people will reconsider their anti-science beliefs. This makes challenging the more odious narratives much more hard.
