For Republicans, the caucus victor hasn’t won the GOP nomination since 2000.
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“It’s an internal party business meeting, run by the parties, not run by the state’s election machinery”, Dennis Goldford, an expert on the Iowa caucuses at Drake University, told DW.
Candidates in the race for U.S. president have spent the weekend criss-crossing the state of Iowa ahead of caucuses, where voters for the major parties will make their first choices for preferred nominees. For the Democrats, it was a record turnout. People in the state are accustomed to a long courtship from candidates and are traditionally in no rush to make a commitment.
According to a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll, the former secretary of state now snags 45 percent of the vote to Sanders’ 42 percent.
A plurality of Iowans are actually independents – about 36 percent of the electorate, compared to 32 percent who are Democrats and 31 percent who are Republicans. Look out, though. A snowstorm is forecast to hit the next day, and if the wintry weather arrives earlier than expected, at least some caucus-goers could opt to stay home rather than fearless slick roads.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders campaign pulled in $20 million in January from more than 770,000 donors. But the sparsely populated Midwestern state is not representative of the demographics in the broader United States.
“If this means I lose an election, that’s fine, because, frankly, we have to take care of the people in our country”, he added.
A victory for Trump, who draws thousands to his rallies here, would devastate Cruz, who has deployed waves of volunteers and sought to visit all 99 counties in Iowa to mobilize evangelical Christians. “And I’m not going to politicize that issue”. It’s not a matter of simply showing up and voting.
Democrats take a more interactive approach, with voters forming groups and publicly declaring their support for a candidate. The supporters of each candidate then separate into groups in different areas of the precinct building. Any candidate who receives less than 15 percent support is eliminated from the caucus.
This is the big question on the Democratic side.
“I liked what Cruz had to say”, the Aplington resident said.
The Republican caucuses are more straightforward.
For the winners in Iowa, the prize will be valuable momentum in nominating battles that could stretch for months, while numerous losers on the Republican side quickly could begin dropping by the wayside.
“She’s obviously had a lot of experience”, Ken Royar, 79, said.
“I don’t have to win (Iowa)”, he told CBS.
Iowa does, however, give grassroots candidates a chance to attract national media attention.
A high voter turnout will likely bode well for outsider candidates like Trump and Sanders, signalling they have managed to mobilise their anti-establishment support base.
Clinton called the race in Iowa “tight”, but said she was optimistic about the outcome.
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Mr Cruz, who describes himself as a “consistent conservative”, is relying on a strong get-out-the-vote operation to overtake Mr Trump, who is hoping his star power will boost turnout among non-traditional caucus participants.
