It’s usually necessary to win one of the first two states; every major party presidential nominee since 1976 has won either Iowa or New Hampshire, with one exception (1992’s so-called “Comeback Kid”, Bill Clinton).
Advertisement
After months of hitting the campaign trail and fiery debates among presidential candidates, Monday will mark a permanent shift in the 2016 presidential race: actual voting. They are not related to the caucus night vote in any way except to nominate that first round of 11,065. In Iowa, having your say in the presidential primary process looks nothing like that.
“Primaries and caucuses attract the most ideologically activist people”, Goldford said.
“If we can do that, Iowa’s going to be first in the nation again”, said Kaufmann in closing. In the Democratic caucuses, participants meet at one of 1,781 precincts in Iowa, which can be public buildings or private homes. Nearly 1,700 precincts will hold these gatherings across the state. “When you hear about which Democrat “won” the Iowa caucus, you’re really talking about who got the highest number of state delegate equivalents”.
So How Will the Winners Be determined?: Republicans being Republicans and Democrats being Democrats, each party has different rules. The Iowa GOP has 27 Republican delegate positions awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote.
“It’s a long, drawn-out process, designed for deliberation, to make people really think about their choices”, said Dave Andersen, a political science professor at Iowa State University. Bernie Sanders and two have said they would support O’Malley. Those supporters have to choose another candidate. And in 1996 columnist Pat Buchanan edged eventual nominee Bob Dole, 27.2 percent to 26.2 percent.So no matter what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, history tells us the races will be far from over.
After the re-caucusing period is over, officials determine which candidate has how many votes, and, accordingly, how many delegates each candidate receives. If a candidate does not reach the threshold of support of 15 percent of voters in a caucus needed to be considered viable, that candidates’ supporters are released to back another contender, leading to another round of persuasion.
So what do those results mean for the country?
Whether it was Kerry’s triumph in 2004 or Rick Santorum’s vault to victory in 2012, Iowa has produced its share of unexpected winners.
On January 31, candidates and their super PACs filed reports with the Federal Election Commission on their finances through the end of the year.
“In the run up to the Iowa caucuses we’ve been looking at polls; we’ve been looking at the size of crowds”, Henson said, “None of that counts in the nomination process”. “So, by the time we get to Texas on March 1st, a lot of eyes will be on Texas and there will be a lot of money just like we are seeing in Iowa right now, we’ll see a lot of candidate activity and a whole lot of ads”.
The Iowa Republican Party chairman, Jeff Kaufmann, said he expects GOP turnout to top the previous record of 120,000 people, set in 2012.
Iowa does, however, give grassroots candidates a chance to attract national media attention.
If that candidate can use that perception to win in New Hampshire, this might help bolster their campaign in the coming weeks to gather enough support to take on Trump and Cruz.
Advertisement
The Pennsylvania primary will be held April 26.
