India’s annual monsoon rains are likely to be 105 percent above a long-term average, the country’s only private weather forecaster said on Monday, snapping two straight years of drought that cut farm output and hit farmers’ income.
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The monsoon accounts for about 80 percent of India’s total rain, affecting both summer and winter sowing, and waters more than half of all farmland.
In a month-wise prediction, Skymet stated that during June and July, the monsoon would be 90% and 105% of LPA while for the months of August and September, the cumulative rainfall would be 108% and 115% of LPA respectively.
The private forecaster said the monsoon is expected to arrive on time in June which would result in good rainfall over peninsular India.
The report further adds that there are about 20 percent chances of excess rainfall and a 35 percent chance of above normal rainfall this year.
After two years of below average rainfall, monsoon this year are extremely important for revival of rural economy.
Weather Risk Management Services Pvt.
“As a result, we have seen maximum number of farmers’ suicides past year”, Pattnayak said asking the state governments to ensure that small and marginal farmers get access to institutional credit. The prediction comes on the eve of India’s official weather agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD), releasing its long-range monsoon forecast on Tuesday. “It is not likely to have an adverse impact on monsoon’s performance”, Skymet CEO Jatin Singh said.
The government expects a good monsoon this year after two years of drought as the rain-disrupting El Nino phenomenon is retreating, Agriculture Secretary Shobhana K Pattanayak said.
Earlier this year, IMD experts had predicted chances of a normal monsoon in 2016 because of a weakening El Nino (which hamper rains in Asia) and chances of development of La Nina conditions that favour the monsoon.
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The erratic weather led to consecutive crop failures and resulted in a 0.2% contraction in agriculture growth rate in 2014-15, compared with a 4.2% increase in the previous year.
