In its previous report issued in October 2015, the IMF expected Armenia’s GDP would grow 2.2% in 2016 and IMF Mission Chief to Armenia Hossein Samiei said jus one week ago that economic growth in Armenia would be between 2.25% and 2.5% in 2016.
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The point was made by the IMF’s economic counsellor and director of research, Maurice Obstfeld at a press conference to launch the April 2016 World Economic Outlook at the institution’s Washington DC headquarters on the second day of its spring meetings.
JAPAN: The IMF halved its forecast for Japanese growth this year – to 0.5 percent – despite aggressive monetary policy that has turned Japan’s interest rates negative. “Given China’s important role in global trade, however, bumps along the way could have substantial spillover effects, especially on emerging market and developing economies”, the report said.
For next year, the agency also slashed South Korea’s growth forecast to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent, with the world economy projected to gain 3.5 percent. Southeast Asia ranges from 3% growth in Thailand on the low end to expansion of more than 6% in Vietnam.
The IMF has also predicted Iran’s average economic growth by 2021 at 4 percent. “There are short-term and long-term and short-term risks including capital outflow of emerging countries, changed growth strategy of China and decrease in potential growth rate of the world economy”, it added.
José Viñals, the head of the IMF’s financial stability division said that a broad and slow downturn could reduce global output by 4% over the next five years.
The global lender forecast that the Chinese economy would expand by 6.5 percent in 2016 and 6.2 percent in 2017, both up 0.2 percentage point from its January predictions.
“This number may seem large but it is manageable, given China’s bank and policy buffers and continued strong growth in the economy”.
These figures are similar to those presented last month by the head of IMF for Romania, Reza Baqir, upon the presentation of conclusions of IMF Bucharest mission over March 2-14.
“The effect of the decline in oil prices on the region’s oil-importing countries has been smaller than expected, as many of these economies export other non-renewable resources whose prices have also dropped”, it said.
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“We’re definitely facing the risk of going into doldrums that could be politically perilous”, said Obstfeld, who pointed to stagnant wage growth as fueling a growing sense of economic inequality that is spilling into the voting booth in many countries.
