India will surpass China to become the most populous nation in the world by 2022, six years sooner than previously forecast, and the country is projected to retain the top spot till 2100, the United Nations has said.
Advertisement
The forecast as of two years ago had India surpassing China by 2028, but the shift in population demographics appears to have sped up its timetable.
India will surpass China as the country with the greatest population around 2022.
The Indian population will continue growing for decades after 2022 and will reach 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.7 billion by 2050, while China’s population will remain more or less stable until 2030 and will then begin to decline, the UN said.
Despite a slowdown from 1.24% annual growth to the present 1.18%, owing largely to fertility rates dropping, world population is set to grow in countries where populations are already large or where high numbers of children are born.
Africa will drive more than half of the world’s population growth with the population of 28 of its countries set to double in 35 years.
The United Nations just released updated population projection figures, and it looks like our world is going to get more crowded.
Overall, the UN expects the world population to increase by 1 billion over the next 15 years, reaching 8.5 billion by 2030.
Nine countries that will contribute half the world’s population growth between now and 2050 are: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, US, Indonesia and Uganda.
Among the 10 largest countries by population, one is in Africa (Nigeria), five are in Asia (Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan), two are in Latin America (Brazil and Mexico), one is in North America (the United States), and one is in Europe (Russia).
John Wilmoth, Head, UN Population Division, said the concentration of growth in the poorest countries would make it harder to eradicate poverty, combat hunger and expand schooling and health systems. The report projects Europe will lead the way in that category, with more than 34 per cent of people there expected to be over 60 years old by 2050.
In recent years, fertility has declined in nearly all parts of the world, while life expectancy has increased significantly in the poorest countries, rising from 56 to 62 since the beginning of the century.
Advertisement
Wu Hongbo, UN under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs, explained the importance of the report, stating, “Understanding the demographic changes that are likely to unfold over the coming years, as well as the challenges and opportunities that they present for achieving sustainable development, is key to the design and implementation of the new development agenda”.
