In the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll for Indiana, Clinton leads Sanders by 4 percentage points, which is within the margin of error.
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“There’s a lot of empirical evidence that voters and also delegates do pay attention to momentum in the race”, said David Campbell, the chair of the political science department at the University of Notre Dame in South Bend, Indiana.
No one really knows what that would look like, how it would work or how Mr Trump would react to being robbed of the nomination by the party machine.
Meanwhile, among Democrats, polls suggest Hillary Clinton has a 50-44 advance over her rival, Bernie Sanders.
Trump has the support of 49% of likely Indiana Republican primary voters, compared to 34% for Texas Sen. But if Mr Trump wins IN and its treasure trove of 57 delegates, it becomes increasingly likely he will become the party’s candidate.
Polls in IN have provided a mixed picture: one published last week suggested Mr Cruz had a clear lead over Mr Trump.
IN could be a critical state moving towards the Republican convention, influencing the ballots.
Kasich is not actively campaigning in IN, though he did say he’s not telling his supporters to vote for Cruz over him.
Trump supporters not only were elected to the delegate slots reserved for him, but also to slots reserved for John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. “Indiana is very important, because if I win that’s the end of it”, he said. “He had no hope of winning the state, but that’s where he would have drawn his support”.
He has lived in the state, campaigning hard, especially around Indianapolis and downstate.
Polls close at 5 p.m. CT in 80 of Indiana’s 92 counties, and at 6 p.m. CT in the rest of the state. “We are headed to a contested convention, and I am not willing to concede this country”, Cruz said. IN has 83 Democratic delegates at stake Tuesday, but since they are distributed proportionately, Sanders can not make a significant dent in Clinton’s delegate lead even with a win. The choice is just as likely to alienate primary voters as attract them; the VP slot is seen as a way to balance the ticket or target a key swing state in the general election.
After a poor showing in a must-win in primary, Texas Sen.
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IN offers 57 Republican delegates, 30 statewide and three each in nine congressional districts. Grassroots activists and party insiders will meet next weekend to decide which Nevadans will serve as delegates and attend the Republican National Convention this summer.
