If proven correct, it would be the first time the BJP would hold power in a Northeast state.
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Opinion and exit polls in India have a chequered history but if Monday’s forecast comes true on May 19 – the result day – it will have significant implications for both politics and governance at the Centre. No parivartan likely in West Bengal The exit polls all show West Bengal opting for the status quo. The polls don’t give BJP any reason to rejoice in West Bengal, keeping it a very minor player with 2-4 seats. In the Bihar assembly polls, for instance, at least two pollsters predicted a sweep for the BJP and its allies while the rest failed to catch the landslide victory that Nitish Kumar and his Grand Alliance finally scored. However, if it manages to open its account and win a couple of seats, its political managers will be tempted to feel they have established their foothold in yet another south Indian state after Karnataka.
In Kerala, the CPM-led LDF is expected to wrest power from the Congress-led UDF, maintaining the trend of change in every election. Similarly a win for Banerjee in West Bengal will show that the Left-Congress alliance has still a long way to go before emerging as a winnable election combination.
Two exit polls on Monday evening predicted a defeat for the ruling AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
In the last elections in Assam, the Congress – which has been in power in the state for 15 years – won 78 seats, the AIUDF 18 and the BJP five seats.
BJP will get 48 per cent votes, Congress 31 per cent, AIUDF 11 per cent and others will get 10 per cent seats.
In case of Tamil Nadu, two of the three polls projected a simple majority for the DMKCongress alliance, but the Times Now-CVoter poll sug gested that Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK would win quite comfortably, bagging 139 seats in the 234-member House. The India Today-My Axis-India polls survey gave DMK and allies 124 to 140 seats and AIADMK 89 to 101. The CPI-M-led Left Front and the Congress combine would get 126 with a solitary seat going to the BJP.
The News Nation TV exit poll gave 95-99 seats to the AIADMK and 114-118 to the DMK-Congress alliance. Voting in the southern Indian states of Tamil, Nadu, Kerala and Pondicherry for state assembly elections is taking place on May 16.
And in Kerala, it is predicted that Left Democratic Front will get 79 out of 140 seats. The poll data further suggests that the United Democratic Front (UDF) will perhaps get only 57 (+/- 9) seats.
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In West Bengal while ABP-Nielson put TMC in the driver’s seat giving it 163 seats, Left-Cong alliance 126 and the BJP 1-5, C Voter gave TMC 167 votes, Left-Cong alliance 120 and BJP 3-4 and Axis-MyIndia gave TMC 233-251, the alliance 38-51 and the BJP 1-5. Others would get four seats.
