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Fed’s surprise message: June hike likely if economy improves

Stocks turned lower and bond yields rose after the minutes were released at 2 p.m.

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At its April meeting, the Fed kept its target overnight interest rate in a range of 0.25 per cent to 0.50 per cent.

In late-morning trades, the benchmark Nikkei 225 Index is advancing 73.83 points or 0.44 percent to 16,718.52, off a high of 16,841.04 in early trades.

Following the minutes, traders projected a 34% chance the Fed would raise rates in June, up from 15% on Tuesday, according to CME FedWatch.

Bullion has rallied 20 percent this year on speculation that the Fed has slowed its expected pace of rate increases on concerns about global economic growth and the volatility of stock markets.

Such views helped revive the prospect of a rate hike in June, which had been dismissed by many investors. Referring to the June meeting, officials “generally judged it appropriate to leave their policy options open and maintain the flexibility to make this decision” based on how the economy evolves, the minutes said. But after turbulence struck financial markets and the global economy weakened, the Fed removed that assessment from its descriptions of the economy and held rates steady.

Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed president Bill Dudley will deliver speeches in the U.S. on Thursday, in addresses likely to shed more light on the outlook for rates.

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, agreed that the British vote could prompt the Fed to delay until the following month.

But some analysts suggested that the Fed might want to pull the trigger in June given evidence that the economy is recovering after almost stalling in the first three months of the year.

LIFT AT LOWE’S: The home improvement chain Lowe’s rose $2.47, or 3 percent, to $78.54 on surging first-quarter profits and higher comparable-store sales. The government said this week that the consumer price index jumped 0.4 percent in April, reflecting higher energy costs.

Several Fed members, who come from around the country, reported in the meeting that businesses in their regions “had seen a pickup in wages, shortages of workers in selected occupations, or pressures to retain or train workers for hard-to-fill jobs”.

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MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.8 percent in early trade as the prospect of a second US rate hike in six months raised concerns for emerging markets already grappling with a slowing China. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said of the possibility of a June hike, “I wouldn’t take it off the table”. Improving economic data, led by a stronger-than-forecast inflation report Tuesday, along with the minutes have now brought forward expectations the central bank will raise rates this year, after liftoff from near zero in December. Speaking in Midland, Texas, Kaplan said he may advocate for a move in June or July.

Trending Fed gets hawkish bank stocks gain