Also, he has won in the mud. Some handicappers believe he can run down Nyquist this time. Prior to that, he was fourth behind Exaggerator when he finished third in the San Felipe. The triple crown has historically been won in bunches, with multiple winners in the 19-30’s, ’40’s and ’70’s. The 8-for-8 Nyquist coasted by 3¼ lengths last month in the Florida Derby over a drying-out track that had patches of standing water. But how the step up in class will affect him is unknown. He’s now hoping for another chance at that title with Nyquist, this year’s Kentucky Derby victor.
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Comment: He has been training extremely well, has great connections and will try to win as another early frontrunner.
With the exception of closers Cherry Wine and Fellowship, most of these newcomers either want to race on the lead or within close proximity of the pace, which could make for a crowded run into the first turn and potentially lead to a quick pace. So he figures to be sent, but whether he can keep up with these horses, even under early encouragement, remains to be seen.
“But we have to win the Preakness first”. There’s so much speed, and there’s quality speed.
Comment: A closer who should be making up a lot of ground late in the race. “I’m sure they are going to be aggressive with him”.
But the City Zip colt will be fresh coming into the race; he has not run since April 16.
However, Exaggerator has lost all four of his races against Nyquist. The outside post could impact his front-running style.
Nyquist is in post 3 in the field of 11, not where trainer Doug O’Neill would have chosen to be.
With a smaller field than the Derby and a shorter distance to run, Exaggerator is expected to closer to the leaders, which will likely include Nyquist. Churchill Downs raised its total purse to $2 million in 2005 with the victor taking in $1.425 million, while the Belmont Stakes upped its purse to $1.5 million prior to 2014’s running. The question is whether or not Nyquist will like the slop or not.
Baffert says of Nyquist: “I’d probably be surprised if he didn’t win”.
Eight races, eight victories. Still, trainer Bob Baffert was anxious. Gutierrez, the only jockey Nyquist has ever had, turned in a tremendous ride in the Derby, as he continues to ride this horse with great confidence.
So, is there the mother of all mudders ready to pull an upset for the second jewel of the Triple Crown?
Also, 10-year-old Ben’s Cat squeezed between two horses to win by a neck in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint.
So who are the new shooters that have the best chance of finishing in the money?
So. Let’s have a $1 trifecta box – $24 investment – with Nyquist, Exaggerator, Collected and Stradiveri. Nyquist, 2. Stradivari, 3.
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That leaves Exaggerator to pick up the pieces. Stradivari. Nyquist will be a heavy favorite but maybe this time Exaggerator catches the favorite. But he’s failed to do so four times already since June 5, and I don’t see him doing it at Pimlico. Exaggerator. A muddy track is possible but Nyquist has been able to handle everything. While that may not make for a big payout for those laying a few dollars on him, it could set up another potential Triple Crown finish at the upcoming Belmont Stakes if he can deliver on the odds. “… We’re very optimistic that we’re going to break good and get into position”.
