“Conditions are congenial for the arrival of monsoon in the next 4-5 days”, Laxman Singh Rathore, the chief of India’s meteorological department, said at a news conference.
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The rainfall in July will be 107 percent of long period average and 104 percent in August. “Our analysis of the model shows that monsoon 2016 may end up on the positive side of the normal with well distributed rainfall over the country”, said Prasad.
The forecasts for the monthly rainfall for July & August over the country as a whole and for the season rainfall for the 4 broad geographical regions of India (NW India, NE India, Central India and South Peninsula) have been issued using a 6-parameter Ensemble Forecasting System.
This monsoon season, North-West India, comprising major food-producing states like Haryana and Punjab which have received deficit precipitation in the last two years, will receive 108 percent rainfall of the average.
The IMD added that the El Nino conditions have turned from neutral to negative – El Nino events weaken the summer westerly winds (blowing from west to east) over the Indian Ocean.
While the probability of excess rainfall (rain over 110 per cent of LPA) is 23 per cent, Rathore dismissed concerns on the possibility of floods.
Agriculture accounts for only 15 per cent of India’s gross domestic product but employs 60 per cent of the population. Private forecaster Skymet had said the monsoon will reach on time, but that certainly did not happen.
“Monsoon rains are expected to commence over north eastern states around June 10 and advance further westward across West Bengal, Bihar, East UP and Himalayan belt between June 16 and June 20”.
“Above normal” monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA and anything beyond 110 per cent is considered “excess”.
For the past two years, over 2,55,000 villages across 255 districts and 10 states are suffering from drought that has affected over 33 crore people.
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Incessant rain continue to pound several areas of Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during last 24 hours as well.
