The updated operational long range forecast for the southwest monsoon season (June-September) rainfall over the country forecast by India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows a better than normal rainfall across the country.
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The season rainfall over Broad Geographical Regions is likely to be 108% of LPA over North-West India, 113% of LPA over Central India, 113% of LPA over South Peninsula, and 94% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %. “The onset of monsoon in Kerala is expected in the next four to five days”, said S.M. Metri, Director, IMD. Between 104-110 percent it is “above normal” and beyond 110 percent it is considered “excess”.
A high El Nino has a negative effect in terms of the weather, agriculture and economics. The State had received 10 per cent less rain than normal.
The agency said the western side of the country may receive a little less than normal rainfall in June, while in the next few months there will be normal or excess rainfall throughout the country, except in some pockets. The country as a whole was likely to get rainfall that was 106 per cent of normal.
The IMD further said that there was still time for the monsoon to hit the coast.
July and August are expected to receive 107 per cent and 104 per cent of rainfall of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The South-West monsoon has advanced into more parts of the Bay of Bengal even as heavy piloting showers continued to lash Kerala, Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
In those 24 years, 16 years or 67% of them saw above-normal rainfall while seven years or 29% saw normal rainfall. “We can hope for good rains this year”, an IMD official said.
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Interestingly, the forecast of monsoon onset issued during the past 11 years (from 2005-2015) except 2015 has proved to be correct.
