This was certainly the view of Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage who all but conceded defeat before counting began.
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Interestingly, according to Betfair the probability of the Remain camp winning in today’s United Kingdom referendum has increased by 78 percent, according to response from the latest campaign polls.
“A previous YouGov poll for the Times on June 20, which used different adjustments, showed “Remain” on 42 per cent and “Leave” on 44 per cent”. An Opinium Research poll of 3000 Britons was just as close, with Leave getting a 45 per cent share, Remain 44 per cent and undecided with 9 per cent.
Despite all the bluster from politicians, a poll by Ipsos Mori shows that only 12 percent of people hold any trust in those in power when it comes to the referendum.
Two more opinion polls, from YouGov and ComRes, are expected this evening.
Polls opened at 7am BST and close at 10pm.
It is less than 24 hours until polls open for the European Union referendum – and a new survey suggests that Leave is in the lead.
But 11% of voters are still undecided, and once all of the don’t knows are taken into account, Remain leads Leave by 54% to 46%.
Bookies clearly saw momentum for the Remain camp.
The value of Sterling dropped sharply by around 3 per cent on the markets in an instant reaction to the Sunderland result, as traders took on board the possibility of a strong result for Leave.
At the 2015 general election, the BBC’s exit poll defied all of the campaign surveys to correctly predict a victory for David Cameron’s Conservative Party – although it still understated the scale of the win. Overall the United Kingdom bond market is showing none of the signs of what operation fear has been warning of i.e. for a sharp rise in interest rates, which even if BrExit happens clearly does not look probable. The two ways of doing this are through online and telephone polls.
On telephone polling Remain was consistently ahead. It is being compounded by shock at the neo-Nazi beliefs of the man who has been charged with murdering Cox, an outspoken defender of immigration and a supporter of the “Remain” campaign.
Telephone respondents could have told the pollsters they did not know or that they had not made up their mind.
Results from Newcastle and Sunderland suggest that the vote will be as close as some polls have predicted.
Kathleen Brooks is now out on maternity leave, but has decided the European Union referendum is far too exciting to miss, so she will be available for comments and broadcast slots over the next few weeks.
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Things are not much better in the USA, where Donald Trump, the business tycoon and reality TV celebrity who makes even the most populist and outrageous politicians in the US seem meek in comparison, becomes the presumptive presidential candidate for the Republican Party by basically trash-talking and insulting people to victory. However, the result of this referendum might have put a halt to that trend.
